Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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166 FXUS65 KABQ 111747 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1147 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Today sees the best chances for scattered to numerous showers and storms for the eastern two-thirds of northern and central NM. A few of these storms could become strong to severe, producing lightning, hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours. Drier conditions push in from the west Sunday, with showers and storms holding on the longest through northeastern NM Sunday evening. Scattered showers and storm chances return over northern and central NM Monday and Tuesday afternoon as well, and likely Wednesday as well. The question is how long will shower and storm chances last into the latter half of next week? && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Active weather will continue today as a 565dm H5 low near Las Vegas shifts east and interacts with moist southeasterly flow across NM. Large-scale ascent associated with a broad 70 to 80 kt speed max aloft will spread over low level convergence along a surface front draped across central NM. Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected to develop before sunrise today around the RGV then spread northeast across the central mt chain throughout the day. A stable airmass in place over eastern NM this morning with widespread low stratus and patchy fog will limit surface-based instability initially. However, that will change along the western periphery of the airmass while a dryline-type scenario approaches from the west and allows stronger forcing with surface-based instability to spread east. The latest SPC convective outlook has a large `Marginal Risk` area from near ABQ and Santa Fe southeastward to Roswell today. The main threat will be large hail an isolated severe wind gusts with the strongest storms. The QPF pattern suggests storms will organize into linear segments from southwest to northeast with cells training over the same areas thru this evening. This will lead to bands of higher QPF with a large disparity between folks who pick up more than 0.50" and those who receive almost nothing. This will be especially true around the RGV and central mt chain before storms organize upstream into a large area of rain across northeast NM by tonight. The latest WPC QPF shows widespread amounts in excess of 1" over northeast NM with a `Marginal Risk` for excessive rainfall in place. Meanwhile, western NM will remain very dry and breezy today with temps slightly below normal while eastern NM is cool and wet. By late tonight, the upper low will have moved into southern CO with widespread low clouds and patchy fog continuing across eastern NM thru late Sunday morning. Rain and isolated storms may linger thru sunrise as well around the Caprock of east-central NM. The focus will then shift to afternoon showers and storms developing over the higher terrain and northeast NM in the wake of the departing upper low. This activity will move quickly southeast and may produce small hail along with brief rain and localized strong winds thru late day. Max temps will still be 5 to 10F below normal and blustery northwest winds will make it feel even cooler. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Sunday night convection dies down over the northeastern portion of NM with clearing conditions heading into Monday morning. Outflow winds from convection over northeastern NM will likely produce some gusty winds reaching as far as the central highlands and Estancia Valley early Monday morning. Monday sees NM between the exiting upper low to the east and a weak ridging pattern ahead of the next upper low off the southern CA coast. Numerical model guidance continues to favor enough mid-level moisture to generate afternoon showers and thunderstorms over parts of central and northern NM Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Small hail, gusty winds and lightning will be the main hazard from any of these storms. The extended portion of the forecast for Wednesday and beyond remains uncertain. Numerical model guidance continues to resolve multiple scenarios regarding how the upper low from the southern CA coastline phases with a trough digging down the Intermountain West. Near equal numbers of ensemble members have the trough closing off over AZ and spending more time over the Desert Southwest compared with a more progressive pattern. The first scenario would favor continued cooler and wetter conditions over NM with a backdoor frontal boundary bringing additional low-level moisture ahead of it into NM. The more progressive scenario would see the trough stay open and track eastward into TX by Thursday with drier air pushing in from the west and bringing a relatively quick end to precipitation chances over NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 MVFR conditions will be associated with scattered to numerous showers and storms today across north central and eastern NM. Storms are forecast to move in on the ABQ Metro between 19-23Z. KLVS will likely go down to IFR with higher chances for storms this afternoon/evening. Areas of MVFR conditions in low stratus will redevelop overnight across eastern NM, with lower IFR probabilities. Improvement is forecast Sunday morning between 14-16Z. Both KFMN and KGUP are forecast to remain VFR through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 There are no critical fire weather concerns for the next 7 days outside elevated conditions today in the West Central Range and Basin. Widespread wetting rainfall is likely for areas along and east of the central mt chain thru tonight with light snow accums in the northern high terrain above 10kft. A cool and unsettled weather pattern may persist thru the middle of next week for northern and eastern NM with daily rounds of showers and storms possible. There are big model differences now by late next week so forecast confidence deteriorates significantly beyond Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 72 41 72 43 / 30 20 20 0 Dulce........................... 64 35 66 30 / 90 20 50 5 Cuba............................ 66 41 64 37 / 70 20 40 5 Gallup.......................... 69 32 70 36 / 5 0 20 0 El Morro........................ 66 35 65 39 / 5 0 20 0 Grants.......................... 71 35 70 36 / 10 5 20 0 Quemado......................... 70 36 68 39 / 0 0 20 0 Magdalena....................... 73 44 70 45 / 20 0 20 0 Datil........................... 69 38 66 42 / 5 0 20 0 Reserve......................... 75 35 75 36 / 0 0 10 0 Glenwood........................ 79 46 79 50 / 0 0 5 0 Chama........................... 56 34 59 31 / 90 20 70 10 Los Alamos...................... 60 41 62 43 / 80 40 50 10 Pecos........................... 56 41 62 40 / 90 50 40 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 36 55 39 / 90 50 70 20 Red River....................... 50 30 52 30 / 90 50 90 20 Angel Fire...................... 50 31 54 27 / 80 60 70 20 Taos............................ 62 34 63 32 / 80 60 50 10 Mora............................ 53 35 60 35 / 90 60 50 10 Espanola........................ 69 43 68 40 / 80 40 40 10 Santa Fe........................ 62 42 63 43 / 80 50 40 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 66 44 67 41 / 80 40 30 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 71 48 72 50 / 70 30 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 72 49 74 48 / 60 20 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 74 48 76 48 / 50 20 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 73 50 73 48 / 60 20 20 0 Belen........................... 77 46 77 44 / 40 10 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 72 49 74 47 / 70 30 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 75 47 76 44 / 50 10 20 0 Corrales........................ 73 49 75 48 / 60 20 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 75 48 76 45 / 50 10 20 0 Placitas........................ 69 46 69 48 / 70 30 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 72 48 73 48 / 60 20 20 0 Socorro......................... 82 51 81 50 / 10 5 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 41 63 45 / 80 40 30 5 Tijeras......................... 65 43 67 45 / 70 30 30 5 Edgewood........................ 64 41 67 40 / 80 40 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 41 69 37 / 70 40 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 59 40 64 38 / 80 50 20 10 Mountainair..................... 70 41 69 42 / 50 20 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 71 43 69 41 / 40 20 20 0 Carrizozo....................... 78 48 75 49 / 30 10 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 69 44 68 44 / 40 20 20 0 Capulin......................... 52 39 59 39 / 90 70 80 20 Raton........................... 54 40 64 38 / 90 60 70 20 Springer........................ 55 41 65 38 / 90 60 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 52 40 64 38 / 90 70 30 10 Clayton......................... 59 45 68 46 / 80 70 60 30 Roy............................. 54 44 66 43 / 90 80 50 20 Conchas......................... 61 50 73 45 / 90 90 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 60 48 70 43 / 80 70 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 62 49 75 46 / 80 80 30 20 Clovis.......................... 64 51 78 50 / 80 70 20 10 Portales........................ 65 51 80 48 / 80 70 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 64 51 77 46 / 80 70 10 10 Roswell......................... 74 58 86 55 / 50 40 5 0 Picacho......................... 68 50 78 47 / 40 20 10 0 Elk............................. 71 47 77 45 / 30 20 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...11