Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 042313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
513 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 251 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

Overall forecast remains relatively quiet into Tuesday of next week
then the pattern is likely to become more active.  Currently, a
surface ridge axis lies through eastern Iowa with cold advection
occurring from the east today.  Temperatures have remained cooler
with a somewhat brisk east surface flow although still above normal
aided by full sunshine.  This relatively stagnant patter will
persist into early Saturday before warm advection begins.  In fact
temperatures into Friday are likely to be a few degrees cooler than
today, especially in the west where the overall low level profile
cools slightly.  Any additional areas of clouds may also contribute
to cooler readings as well.  Weak warm advection kicks into gear on
Saturday and intensifies into Sunday.  With generally sunny
conditions during this time, readings should respond accordingly
with highs adding around 5 degrees on Saturday and around an
additional 10 degrees on Sunday, especially given the favorable SSW
surface winds.

Upper ridging continues to build through the central United States
into Monday as trof begins to impact the west coast.  This is
expected to maintain the warm and dry conditions through Iowa into
Tuesday.  The west coast shortwave is forecast to rapidly move
northeast into the region on Wednesday into early Thursday.  The
persistent south to southwest flow early in the week will eventually
allow some moisture back into the state.  As forcing increases with
the approach of the shortwave Tuesday night into Wednesday, an
increasing threat of precipitation is expected.  Some thunder
appears possible into Wednesday with frontal passage and a narrow
ribbon of instability ahead of the boundary.  Still differing output
from models on overall convective threat and plenty of time for
determining if much convection will occur.  Otherwise, cooler air
arrives on Thursday ending the long stretch of above normal
temperatures across the state.


.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 509 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

VFR conditions prevail through the current TAF period.




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