268
FXUS64 KFWD 190008
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
708 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Tomorrow/

Relatively quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the
weekend. South winds 5-10 mph overnight will continue to draw
warm/moist air north. This should nudge tonight`s temperatures at
least a couple degrees higher than last night. Gulf stratus will
develop over the Hill County tonight and move into western Central
Texas and parts of the Big Country early tomorrow morning. East of
the stratus, patchy fog is expected for parts of Central and East
Texas. Fog is most likely for locations in/near the Brazos and
Trinity River valleys where a 1-3 degree crossover temperature
is forecast. Widespread dense fog is not expected, but there is a
40% chance of patchy dense fog in low-lying locations with damp/wet
soils.

The fog will be shallow and burn off a couple hours after sunrise,
but the stratus will take a little more time to lift and scatter.
By the early afternoon, mostly sunny skies will prevail across the
region. A majority of our area topped out near 90 this afternoon.
Tomorrow`s temperatures should be similar, but most should be 1-2
degrees lower due to more moisture in the air. The extra humidity
will result in heat index values in the mid 90s, but a southerly
10-15 mph breeze with gusts to 20-25 mph should help make the heat
more tolerable.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 222 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Upper level ridging and dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will keep
the beginning of this upcoming week warm, dry, and humid across
North and Central Texas. A deepening longwave trough will move
onshore in the western CONUS early this week, eventually shunting
the ridge further into the deep south. In advance of this
incoming trough, surface lee cyclogenesis will occur to our
northwest and increase wind speeds through Tuesday in response.
While the slightly elevated winds may help alleviate the heat,
increased WAA from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday will allow
afternoon heat indices to peak near 100 degrees across the
majority of the region. With many end-of-school outdoor activities
going on during the afternoon hours, caution will need to be
taken when spending longer periods outside. Make sure to drink
plenty of water, wear light clothing, and take breaks in air
conditioning/shade.

By Tuesday evening, a shortwave disturbance will round the base of
the trough and eject to the northeast. Lift from this shortwave
will interact with present moisture and instability to promote
isolated chances for showers and storms beginning Tuesday night.
Immediately upstream of the initial disturbance, a stouter
shortwave will swing across the Great Plains and send a cold front
south across the Red River early Wednesday. Scattered showers and
storms will continue to be possible near and along the front as
it pushes south. The front will end up stalling across North Texas
as its upper level support quickly races off to the east
Wednesday evening. Coverage in storms ahead/along the stalled
boundary will increase on Thursday as another shortwave transits
across the region and ushers the boundary northward as a warm
front. Forecast soundings show enough shear and instability to
promote strong to severe storms, but it is still a bit too early
to pinpoint more exact locations, threats, and intensity.
Nonetheless, keep an eye on the forecast for mid-late this week as
we will have more refined details the closer we get. Lingering
rain chances will end on Friday, with a temporary lull in
precipitation expected ahead of yet another incoming shortwave
disturbance to our northwest.

Switching back to temperatures and heat: slightly "cooler"
temperatures in the 80s are expected midweek thanks to the front
and rain chances, but a warming trend is expected going into the
weekend as ridging begins to build across the Southern Plains.
Continued high humidity and warming temperatures will push heat
index values back into the mid-upper 90s for most. Friday and
Saturday will once again be days to keep an eye on outside
conditions as heat indices could be 100+ degrees in some areas,
the highest of the forecast period. With next weekend being so far
out, there is quite a degree of uncertainty in the exact
temperature/heat index and locations. However, if similar guidance
trends continue over the next handful of days, heat safety
messaging will need to be ramped up for next weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Light southeast winds will prevail through the night. Gulf stratus
will move into western Central Texas and areas SW of D10 after 06Z
tonight. Patchy fog with IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected east of
the stratus deck, including at the ACT terminal early tomorrow
morning. The ACT 00Z TAF is more pessimistic than the 18Z TAF,
but still keeps the lowest CIG/VIS at IFR. However, it will be
close. There is a 30% chance of LIFR ceilings occurring *AT* the
terminal and a 60% chance of LIFR ceilings within 25 miles of ACT.

VFR will return to all terminals by 17-18Z along with breezy SE
winds.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  91  73  91  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  87  70  88  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               66  88  69  88  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              69  90  73  91  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            69  89  72  89  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              72  91  73  91  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             69  88  70  88  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  88  72  90  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              70  87  69  89  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  90  72  93  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$