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000
FXUS63 KGLD 200855
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
255 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow showers are still expected across most of the
  area today. Precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage
  and intensity through the day. Any new snow accumulations are
  generally expected to be under an inch. Any new rain
  accumulations are expected to be under a quarter of an inch.

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for Sunday and
  beyond. There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

- Increasing fire weather concerns generally south of Interstate
  70 and west of Highway 25 Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the remainder of today, rain and snow shower are forecast for
locales mainly along and north of I-70. Current radar observations
show the precipitation slowly starting to shift north. This trend is
expected to continue through the morning, with the heaviest
precipitation generally along and north of Highway 36. This is based
on RAP guidance suggesting that the precipitation is based more on
isentropic lift with a lack of a surface boundary and lack of low to
mid level frontogenesis. The best conditions are forecast to
continue to gradually shift north through the morning with more
intermittent conditions along and south of I-70. Snow still looks to
generally be confined to north of I-70 and west of Highway 27 based
on temperature observations. With weak cold air advection and
persistent cloud cover, temperatures likely won`t drop much across
the area the remainder of this morning and remain in the 30`s.
Conversely, the persistent cloud cover through the day will hinder
how high temperatures will get during the day similar to yesterday.
As long as the cloud cover doesn`t break, most of the area will warm
only into the upper 30`s to mid 40`s. For precipitation amounts, the
consensus is around another tenth or two across the snow area with
the rest of the area seeing up to a tenth of an inch. Snow should
taper off by the early afternoon hours as temperatures warm just
enough to melt most of the snow that falls.

Tonight, cloud cover is forecast to linger through most of the night
with a lack of air mass change and dry air to clear the moisture.
While winds are forecast to be relatively calm, the cloud cover and
dewpoints around 30 will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid
30`s.

Tomorrow, the upper pattern is forecast to begin changing with more
ridging over the area. This will allow the area to warm up to near
average temperatures in the low 60`s. If the cloud cover clears
early in the morning, mid to upper 60`s would become more likely.
Precipitation remains unlikely with high pressure over the area and
relatively drier air forecast to move in through the day.

Monday, a cut-off low is forecast to rotate around the larger low in
Eastern Canada. This will help a surface low pressure system develop
across the Plains. The southern part is forecast to cut off from the
rest of the Plains and deepen slightly along the KS/CO border. With
the low forecast to keep southwesterly flow over the area, warm air
will be able to advect into the area and allow for temperatures to
warm into the 70`s and maybe even some low 80`s. Another thing for
Monday will be to watch for some chances for thunderstorms. While
drier air is forecast to move in on Sunday, some low level moistures
is forecast to linger in the Panhandles region. If the low doesn`t
move too far south, some of that moisture could be pulled into the
area and develop storms along a surface convergence zone associated
with the low. Severe weather chances currently look to be low with
less than 1000 J/KG of CAPE and potential capping (though a boundary
could overcome the cap).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Tuesday...broad upper level ridging is forecast to move over the
area from the west, in between low pressure systems over the Great
Lakes/northeast part of the country and off the coast of southern
California. Dry weather is anticipated during the day with
increasing chances (20%-40%) for light rain showers and
thunderstorms overnight as a batch of moisture in the 850-500mb
layer moves off of the Colorado rockies and into the area.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures in the 10C to 16C range support NBM
high temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s using typical
mixing. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 30s to
lower 40s. Northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph during the day become
southerly at similar speeds after midnight.

Wednesday...this mornings ECMWF/GEM show the 500mb flow slightly
shifting to the southwest, ahead of an upper level trough over
California. The 00z GFS/GEFS models have the upper trough axis
becoming slightly negatively tilted as it approaches the four
corners area. Not much confidence in any one solution at this point
so no changes anticipated to the NBM output. The forecast is
currently calling for high temperatures in the upper 60s to middle
70s with low temperatures in the 40s. Tuesdays weather system exits
the area in the morning with 20% chances for light rain showers east
of Highway 25. There appears to be enough moisture in the 850-500mb
layer to linger across much of the area to support 20%-40% chances
for showers and thunderstorms overnight. Breezy southerly winds are
anticipated for much of the day through about midnight with gusts up
to 30 mph or so. If the GFS model verifies, winds may be higher
given 6mb pressure falls of 6 to 11mb. Also, if the GFS verifies,
fog would be possible given a saturated boundary layer that moves
into the area from the south overnight.

Thursday...The 00z and yesterdays 18z run of the GFS and latest GEFS
model shows Wednesdays 500mb trough lifting northeast into the Tri-
State area during the day with a closed 557mb low, continuing
east/northeast into south central Nebraska/north central Kansas
overnight. The latest and previous runs of the ECMWF/GEM models show
a large broad upper level trough over the western half of the
country. Currently, the forecast is calling for high temperatures to
be in the upper 70s to middle 80s which favors the warmer ECMWF/GEM
850mb temperature forecast. Low temperatures are forecast to be in
the middle 40s to middle 50s.

There continues to be a signal for a dryline to set up somewhere
between Highway 27 and 25 during the day which would support
shower/thunderstorm initiation, moving toward the northeast and
likely out of the area sometime during the night. Presently, there
is a rather broad approach to things with 20%-50% chances for
showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon for much of the area,
continuing into the evening before slowly dissipating a bit from
southwest to northeast after midnight.

Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast during the
day for locations south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25.

Friday...the large upper trough to our west looks to be reinforced
by energy diving into its base from northern California. Presently,
there is a 20%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the
day with similar chances overnight. Looking at GFS/ECMWF 850-500mb
relative humidity/qpf forecasts, there is a bit more confidence in
precipitation occurring across the northwest 1/2 of the area
during the day, dissipating around or shortly after midnight, if
not before. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower
70s to around 80 with low temperatures in the upper 30s to upper
40s. Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast during
the day south of Highway 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

GLD: IFR-LIFR conditions associated with low ceilings and/or
precipitation (snow) will prevail through Saturday morning.
Improvement to MVFR will likely not occur until Saturday
afternoon (~21 UTC).. and conditions may deteriorate in
association with low stratus and/or fog after sunset Saturday
evening. 5-10 knot NE winds will veer to the E overnight,
further veering to the SE and increasing to 10-15 knots during
the day on Saturday.

MCK: VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR by sunrise
(09-12Z) and further deteriorate to IFR thereafter (12-14Z)..
as low ceilings and light precipitation (RA/SN) overspread the
region. While some improvement to MVFR may occur during the
late afternoon (21-23Z).. conditions may deteriorate (in
association with low stratus and/or fog) after sunset Saturday
evening. Winds will remain light through the TAF period..
veering from NE to E overnight.. further veering to the SE
during the day on Saturday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BV