Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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191 FXUS64 KMOB 071816 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 115 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions with southerly winds of 10-15 knots will continue this afternoon. Winds will decrease tonight with low clouds and patchy fog returning. VFR conditions return Wednesday morning. /13 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 An upper-level ridge continues to reside over the Gulf of Mexico throughout the near term period. Its ridge axis extends northward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley this morning. This axis will push east across our area throughout the day today. Northwesterly upper flow this morning will increase and turn more west-southwesterly after the axis passes. At the surface, a persistent high pressure system over the western Atlantic maintains southerly flow across our area, keeping us in a summer- like pattern. Overall storm coverage today still remains rather questionable, however. Although there is plenty of moisture and instability in place, subsidence from the passing ridge axis may help to limit coverage across the area, especially with a lack of any large-scale lifting mechanisms to counter the subsidence. However, taking into consideration that upper-level flow will increase and shift directions after the passage of the ridge axis, a brief corridor of weak upper-level diffluence may materialize over our northwestern zones during the afternoon hours. Therefore, have maintained isolated to scattered rain chances for areas west of I-65 (generally a 20-40 percent chance). It should be noted that although coverage should be rather low, storms that do develop will be working with CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear of around 30kts, with straight-lined hodographs. Due to this favorable environment, any storm that does develop could become loosely organized, posing a localized threat for strong to damaging winds and/or hail up to quarter-sized. SPC has included our northwestern-most zones in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for this afternoon due to this potential. Activity will quickly decrease by the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating. By Wednesday, the main ridge begins to shift northeastward, nosing further into our area during the day and helping to provide stronger subsidence across the area. Overall, except for a very isolated pop- up shower or storm over our northern counties, expecting Wednesday to remain dry. Temperatures will continue to climb through the period as subsidence strengthens across the area and warm air advection from the Gulf continues. Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s along the coast to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees inland. Lows tonight will only drop into low to mid 70s. Highs Wednesday will top out in the mid to upper 80s over coastal counties to the low 90s inland. This paired with dew points in the upper 70s will give way to heat indices tomorrow of around 97 to 102 degrees for areas north of I- 10. The rip current risk becomes high today and will remain high through the rest of the week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 89 74 88 69 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 60 40 10 10 Pensacola 74 87 76 85 72 83 63 80 / 0 10 0 10 50 50 10 10 Destin 75 85 76 84 73 82 64 79 / 10 0 0 10 40 50 10 10 Evergreen 70 91 71 90 66 82 55 79 / 0 10 10 40 70 60 0 10 Waynesboro 71 92 71 90 65 82 55 79 / 10 10 10 40 70 30 0 0 Camden 70 92 69 88 65 80 54 77 / 10 20 10 50 70 40 0 0 Crestview 69 91 70 90 68 84 57 82 / 0 10 0 20 50 60 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob