602
FXUS64 KSJT 160845
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
345 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...Severe storms, locally heavy rainfall possible
today/tonight...

The SPC has upgraded parts of the area to an Enhanced Risk for
severe weather today and tonight, mainly for large to very large
hail, and damaging wind gusts. Although the entire area has a
chance for precipitation today and tonight, the best chance for
widespread convection exists east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to
Junction line from later this morning into the afternoon hours.

Currently, we have an outflow boundary sinking south through the
Big Country, with northeast winds to the north of I-20, and
south/southeast winds for the rest of the area, maintaining ample
moisture in the area. A surface trough is off to the west, and
will move east into west central Texas today. This will allow for
several boundaries to act as foci for convection to develop off of
later in the day. Surface based CAPEs east of the dryline, and
north of the outflow boundary will approach 4000 J/kg by late
morning. Aloft southwest flow will bring shortwave energy over the
area, as well as steepening mid level lapse rates, aiding in
developing convection, and deep layer shear values greater than 35
knots will help storms become organized.

The HRRR and NAMNest both generally show convection developing
along/north of I-20 this morning, growing that convection upscale
into an MCS that will move south through the area, although they
differ in timing, with the NAMNest a few hours later. Later in the
day, as additional shortwave energy approaches, another round of
scattered convection is possible for areas mainly south of I-20
will be possible from this afternoon into the evening hours.
However, the extent and severity of this later convection will be
dependent upon how extensive the morning convection is, as it will
modify the air mass as it moves through.

In addition to the chance for severe storms, precipitable water
values will be in the 1 to 2 inch range, so some of the storms
will produce locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, mainly
east of a Sweetwater to Junction line.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Expect hot and dry weather this weekend through much of next week
as a sub-tropical ridge builds across the area along with an 850
MB thermal ridge just west of our area. Highs will be in the upper
90s to around 103 mainly across the Concho Valley, Northern
Edwards Plateau and Northwest Hill Country. Slightly cooler
temperatures are possible next Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Current conditions are VFR at all sites. Low clouds can be seen
moving northward toward the area in satellite imagery, and have
generally kept the timing inherited on MVFR ceilings moving into
our southern sites tonight. Could see some IFR conditions as well
at KSOA and KJCT. Thunderstorms are still a question for Thursday.
Some high resolution models continue to develop storms between 11Z
and 12Z north of I-20 that spread southward affecting most sites
by 00Z, and most of the activity out of the area by 04Z tomorrow
night. Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce
hail, as well as gusty and erratic winds. However, timing and
extent of coverage of any storms that develop is still uncertain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  60  81  63 /  80  50  20  10
San Angelo  86  60  88  63 /  60  30  10   0
Junction    92  64  92  64 /  50  10  10   0
Brownwood   76  61  82  62 /  90  40  10  10
Sweetwater  76  58  81  64 /  80  50  20   0
Ozona       92  60  88  62 /  20  20   0   0
Brady       81  62  83  63 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20