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000
FXUS65 KVEF 200800
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
100 AM PDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring very warm temperatures through
early next week. Low pressure will bring breezy southwest winds
beginning Monday, followed by a cooling trend and chances for
showers late in the week into next weekend.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday night. Midnight satellite loop showed
only a few mid level debris clouds remaining in our CWA from earlier
shallow convection. Surface obs showed locally breezy winds in the
Barstow area and temperatures areawide averaging a degree or two
warmer than 24 hours earlier. The large scale picture is fairly
clear - low pressure to our south will move away today, and high
pressure will build in through Monday. This will bring the warmest
temperatures of the season thus far, with Las Vegas reaching 90F for
the first time either today or tomorrow, and lower-elevation sites
such as Needles and Death Valley expected to reach 100F. This will
lead to Moderate heat risk at the lowest elevations, which will
warrant extra caution by anyone spending time outdoors, but no heat
headlines. However, smaller-scale details are murkier. Yesterday
afternoon, thunderstorms developed over the west side of the Sierra
crest. Weakly unstable air is expected in that area again this
afternoon, with lifted indices around -2 forecast. The departure of
the low will turn the steering flow more westerly, which could lead
to an errant storm drifting over to the east side of the crest.
Blended in some PoPs from the CAMs to cover this possibility.
Similar conditions are possible again Sunday, and what happens this
afternoon will be a good clue for tomorrow. Winds will also become a
concern beginning Monday, as the ridge axis moves to our east and
southwest flow develops over our area. Monday and Tuesday should be
breezy to locally windy, with temperatures coming down from their
peaks, especially on Tuesday. At this time, winds do not look like
they will be strong enough to warrant headlines, but will continue
to monitor.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

Cooler and gustier conditions remain the expectation in the long
term period, though there is considerable uncertainty within the
finer details. A southern stream shortwave and a stronger northern
stream disturbance will phase together in some fashion by late in
the week, though phasing storm systems like this are typically not
well resolved by our numerical models.  On Wednesday, a
southwesterly flow aloft will prevail with above normal temperatures
and breezy conditions in the afternoon. However, as troughing
approaches on Thursday temperatures will cool closer to normal and
breezy to windy conditions will overspread much of the region.  The
primary trough axis looks to move through the area on Friday or
Saturday, which will mark the coolest days of the week.  There has
also been indications that some anomalous moisture will get wrapped
into this storm system which may bring some shower activity to the
region, especially across our northern zones.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds remain light and follow their
typical diurnal patterns through the TAF period. The chance of
sustained winds of 10+ knots remains low throughout the day, peaking
around 25% in the late afternoon. FEW-SCT mid-level and high clouds
this afternoon, clearing out in the evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light and diurnal winds expected at most of the area
TAF sites today. Speeds likely (75% chance) remain below 10 knots
for the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley airports. KDAG
will see sustained winds of 10-15 knots this morning and again this
evening. At KBIH, light north or variable winds persist through the
early afternoon before a push of west-northwest winds arrives 22z-
00z. Speeds of 10+ knots may accompany this push, but winds weaken
and turn more northerly around sunset. FEW-SCT mid-level and high
clouds today, with bases aoa 10kft.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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