Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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971
FXUS62 KJAX 241802
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
202 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...

.NEAR TERM /through Friday/...
Latest hi-res guidance indicates shows scattered showers and
t-storms this afternoon with sea breezes and south-central GA
boundary...increasing in coverage toward evening over western half
of forecast area. Some of this activity may drift back east over
central portions of our forecast area later in the evening while
gradually diminishing. Have shown this evolution in hourly
POP/Weather grids. Very light flow would support slow storm
motion, increasing the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding.

Another round of sea breeze scattered convection Friday
afternoon...again becoming more numerous over western half of
foreccast area late in the day and into the evening.

Expect a mild night with low temperatures in the upper 60s to
lower 70s Tonight...and high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s
Friday...with lower 80s immediate coast.

.SHORT TERM.../Friday night through Monday/...
Lingering convection Friday evening, mainly near the I-75 corridor,
will dissipate by midnight, with partly cloudy skies through the
Overnight. The region will be between high pressure to the East
and a low pressure system to the Southwest Saturday. Enough
moisture to support mainly diurnal convection Saturday. Latest
model runs are trending toward bringing the low pressure system
into the North Central Gulf Saturday night into Sunday. As the low
moves further to the North, moisture will increase over the
region, producing increasing chances for convection into Sunday
afternoon. The low is expected to slowly move North into the
central Gulf coast states Sunday night into Monday. This will keep
the forecast area in the moist sector of this system with
convection and potential for heavy rainfall continuing, but will
largely be diurnal.

With the amount of cloud cover and precipitation expected this
weekend high temperatures will trend a little below seasonal
averages.

.LONG TERM.../Monday night through Thursday/...

The forecast will in large part depend on the track of this
weekend`s low pressure system. The extended models currently
depict the this system to slowly move North Northeastward after
reaching land, with this pattern keeping ample moisture across the
region. The potential for a heavy rainfall pattern will continue
into Tuesday with largely diurnal convection, with primarily
diurnal convection for Wednesday and Thursday as well.

Temperatures are expected to trend near to slightly above normal
this period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected in general next 24 hrs...with
locally lower conditions where SHRA/TSRA occur. Best coverage over
TAF sites to be thru 22Z eastern TAF sites and 00z western sites.
Included mention of gusty winds with TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Western Atlantic high pressure ridge will remain over
the waters... maintaining a SE flow across the waters through the
weekend. Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory
criteria through Saturday. Winds and seas may increase to advisory
criteria by Sunday and Monday as the pressure gradient increases
across the waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk due to southeasterly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  86  68  83 /  80  60  20  30
SSI  72  81  72  80 /  20  20  10  30
JAX  70  86  69  83 /  30  30  10  30
SGJ  71  83  69  79 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  69  87  68  80 /  60  60  30  40
OCF  69  87  68  80 /  50  60  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/23/Cordero



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