Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 231834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
234 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Under sunny skies with moderating northeast breezes, temperatures
along the Florida Keys are near 70 degrees. The atmosphere is too
dry and stable for even the weakest of echoes on KBYX Doppler
radar, even at very long ranges.

A large area of high pressure will expand across northern Florida
tonight. This area of high pressure will settle further to the
southeast Saturday through Sunday, keeping the gradient tight
enough for moderate northeast flow to turn to the east/southeast.
This forecast reasoning has not deviated much at all from the last
several cycles. Another area of high pressure will build down
eastern seaboard early next week, once again tightening the
gradient and strengthening easterly flow from late Monday through
the middle of the coming work week. Graphical guidance from the
ECMWF and GFS suggest a slug of moisture will accompany the
surge of winds through the area early Tuesday morning, but both
are still strongly suggesting sharp ridging above that. So, will
leave any mention of measurable precipitation out of this forecast
just as we have for the last several days. The cool temperatures
tonight and early Saturday will begin moderating as the flow
deepens from the east/southeast through the balance of the


Winds have slackened enough over the past couple of hours to drop
the small craft advisory headline for all coastal waters
surrounding the Florida Keys. However, small craft will need to
exercise caution over the Atlantic waters beyond the reef
overnight as better mixing of the moderate/fresh northeast
breezes will persist. Expect at least moderate breezes turning to
the east/southeast through the weekend as high pressure settles
off the coast of Florida in the western Atlantic.


VFR will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the afternoon.
Another northeast wind surge is expected after 09Z at both


March 23rd, on this date in Key West climate history, in 1986, the
daily record low temperature of 53F was recorded. The temperature
this morning fell to 60 degrees at Key West International Airport.
Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872.


Key West  64  76  69  80 / 0 0 -  -
Marathon  64  77  69  81 / 0 0 -  -





Data Collection......Chesser

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