Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
772 FXUS62 KKEY 181752 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 152 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Drier air will limit shower activity leaving VCSH out of both TAF locations through tonight. Near surface winds will be east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of near 20 knots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1115 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 KBYX this morning has been uneventful with only a few showers attempting to form but not having much success. Dry air has entered our area, the 12z sounding this morning revealed a dry profile, and MIMIC Precipitable water confirmed that the entire CWA is engulfed in this dry air. Temperatures along the island chain are creeping in the upper 80s and with limited cloud development on GOES-19 Satellite, it is expected to hold throughout the day. Wind observations across the Reef are being recorded at 15 to 20 knots. These elevated winds resulted in Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines for the Straits of Florida and Until Winds Decrease inclusion for the remainder of the coastal waters. Beyond headlines being taken down later this afternoon as winds decrease, no changes are neccesary to the current forecast package. && .FORECAST... Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Confidence in the forecast for today through the weekend is rather high, with the ridging underneath the TUTT cell as well as a drying moisture profile below 500 mb suggesting slight rain and thunder chances at best. Thereafter, ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance suggest the synoptic pattern may get a bit more interesting. A frontal boundary stretching from the Midwest northeastward towards the Ohio Valley will progress eastward over the next several days, before likely stalling somewhere off the coast of the Southeast late in the weekend into early next week. There is certainly some ensemble support (particularly in the GEFS and GEPS member and mean products) suggesting possible weak cyclogenesis along this front, with the feature then diving southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula or the eastern Gulf Monday through Wednesday. Forecast soundings depict a window of lower tropospheric moistening, along with a veered low-level wind profile, continuing to support a several forecast period window for elevated shower and thunderstorm activity. Overall, given model- to-model and run- to- run consistency over the past twenty- four hours, minimal changes were made to the previous once- per- day full forecast cycle at KEY tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1115 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Small craft should exercise caution in the Straits of Florida, and until winds decrease in the Florida Bay, Bayside/Gulf side, and Hawk Channel. From synopsis, a strong area of high pressure will continue to build westward across the North Atlantic towards the Florida Peninsula, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes over the next several days. As a second, weak area of high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf for the second half of the weekend through early next week, east to southeast breezes will slacken, becoming light to gentle. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest