Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 231147
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
747 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.AVIATION...
East flow around the Bermuda high is forecast to continue today.
With skies more clear than they have been they last few days, a
more typical diurnal cycle should develop cloud cover by midday,
as well as scattered to numerous SHRA, and isolated TSRA across
South Florida. While VFR is in all TAF sites, brief IFR may be
possible under any +RA.

&&

.UPDATE...
Have adjust PoPs to show coverage and timing more reflective of
current runs of the Hi-Res models, which lower the PoPs this
morning, increasing them through the day, then shifting the
activity towards the Gulf coast this afternoon. Also, with some
actual insolation today, thunderstorms may actually be able to
develop, so kept a slight chance for all of South Florida today,
with the focus shifting west late this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018/

..Showers and storms possible again today...

DISCUSSION...
The unsettled pattern continues through a good portion of the
period as plenty of moisture will persist across the region. An
area of surface high pressure over the Atlantic will be the main
synoptic feature over the region, keeping an easterly to
southeasterly flow through a good portion of this week. To the
north of the region, a frontal boundary will stall over the
southeastern states. The main impacts of this pattern will be the
threat of showers and thunderstorms with a convective focus
across Southwest Florida where some potential interactions with
the Gulf sea breeze could allow for thunderstorms.

Things begin to shift late in the week into this weekend, when all
eyes turn to the tropical disturbance over the western Caribbean.
Model guidance continues to feature a variety of different
solutions which creates much lower confidence with the actual
classification of this disturbance moving forward. A few of the
higher confidence items are the fact that tropical moisture will
be present across South Florida this weekend into early next week
as this system passes to the north Saturday into Sunday. The GFS
continues to take the system either close to the region or to the
east, but it appears there could be some issues relating to the
model impacting the deterministic run as the ensemble mean comes
closer to other solutions with a weak feature traversing the Gulf
of Mexico off the west coast of Florida instead.

We will have to watch the forecast evolution of this disturbance
as it could bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to South Florida
and the adjacent waters. The primary impacts at this point from
this disturbance will be the threat of excessive rainfall
associated with any source of tropical moisture over the region
and the possibility of impacts over the marine waters. Once the
disturbance pushes north, there is the potential for a tail of
tropical moisture to linger over the region early next week. This
moisture tail could allow an excessive rainfall threat to continue
through the end of the extended forecast period. Obviously, there
is great uncertainty with the forecast from late in the week
onward and those with interests in South Florida should monitor
developments closely through the rest of this week and the
Memorial Day holiday weekend.

MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms with easterly to southeasterly flow will
be the main story through much of the week before another surge
of moisture with higher rain chances and an increase in winds is
expected late this week through the Memorial Day weekend. A
tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean will need to be
monitored as it could potentially impact the waters off South
Florida as it progresses north generally into the Gulf of Mexico
this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  84  73  84  73 /  40  30  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  84  75  84  74 /  30  30  40  60
Miami            85  74  85  74 /  30  20  40  60
Naples           86  72  85  72 /  50  20  70  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...02/RAG
MARINE...02/RAG
AVIATION...13
BEACH FORECAST...02/RAG






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