Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
323 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Today...A strong mid level closed low across the TN valley today
will induce diffluent flow aloft with increasing low to mid level
moisture across east central Florida as PWATs climb to 1.7 to 1.8
inches this afternoon. Low level southeast flow in the h9-h8 layer
will veer to the S-SW this afternoon as surface flow along the coast
remains southeast today providing low level convergence across the
coastal counties. High resolution short range guidance indicates a
prefrontal line of showers and some storms will move toward the NW
forecast area into mid day and then transition eastward with
additional convective development across the remainder of east
central Florida into the mid to late afternoon. Will continue high
rain chances in the 70-80 percent range with categorical pops across
the ern sections of east central Florida including the coastal
counties. Environmental parameters will support some robust
convection with some strong storms today with cool mid level temps
to -10 C at 500 mbs, and CAPE to 1500-2000 J/KG. Locally heavy rain,
gusty winds to 45-50 mph and small hail are possible with the
strongest storms. Highs should reach the lower to mid 80s before
storms cool the area off into the 70s in the late afternoon and
early evening.

Tonight...Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue
into the evening hours before diminishing over land by around
midnight with a chance of linger showers overnight. Surface winds
from the southeast to south in the evening will slowly veer to the
SSW/SW overnight. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Tue-Wed...The closed low will creep eastward over the Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday before its energy becomes absorbed within a
sharpening trough over the Great Lakes on Wednesday. In turn, the
system will gradually lose its influence across central Florida,
with strongly cyclonic flow aloft becoming mainly zonal by mid
week. Models depict a north-to-south gradient in PoPs on Tuesday
as better moisture across the southern half of the peninsula
aligns with the best forcing aloft ahead of the trough axis.
Subsequently, PoPs now range from about 30% north of the
Interstate 4 corridor to around 70% across the Treasure Coast.
Will maintain a chance for thunder given the forecast of cool
500mb temps (-11 to -13C) and the anomalously sharp trough just to
our west. Will carry a dry forecast on Wednesday as the axis of
the trough shifts to our east and more pronounced
subsidence/drying builds overhead. Temps remain a few degrees
above their late April climatology, low-mid 80s for highs and low
60s at night.

Thur-Sun...Energetic flow aloft continues into late week as multiple
fast-moving shortwave troughs dig toward the deep south around the
base of a much broader trough across the eastern third of the
nation. Despite some differences between the global models`
evolution of two notable short wave troughs, the first expected to
pass by to the north late Thursday night and the second during the
day Saturday, the message is clear: limited moisture return will
keep the prospects for precipitation quite low. Have maintained
small chances (capped at 20%) for precip from Friday into Saturday
as a series of (mostly) dry boundary moves through. These fronts
will maintain offshore flow through at least Saturday and keep
temperatures near to slightly above their late April averages.


Multilayered cloudiness will continue through sunrise with some LCL
MVFR CIGs and low SHRA chances for east coast terminals. High
convective chances are expected into this afternoon as convection
increases in coverage in the 17z-20z time frame with highest
coverage from KMCO-SFB eastward to coastal terminals in the late
afternoon and early evening from 20z-02z.


Today...S/SE winds to around 15 knots early this morning will become
S/SSE this afternoon to 13-16 knots. Higher seas will linger across
the offshore waters and will extend SCA for these areas into the
afternoon from Sebastian northward.

Tonight...Southerly winds will increase some tonight with winds to
15-19 knots offshore. Will continue SCA for the Volusia offshore
waters with seas to 6-7 ft, with SCEC conds expected for the
remainder of the offshore waters.

Tue...South to southwest flow expected ahead of a front before winds
turn to the west at night behind the boundary. Winds generally 10-15
knots, though a short period of 15-20 knots is possible behind the
front Tuesday night. Expect seas to subside to 2-4 feet close to the
coast and 3-5 feet offshore, with increasing short period chop due
to offshore flow. Chance for fast-moving storms to push off the
mainland as front moves across the area Tuesday afternoon,
especially south of Cape Canaveral.

Wed-Fri...Generally offshore (west) winds expected through late
week, though diurnal sea breeze circulation will cause winds to turn
onshore near the coast each afternoon. Seas generally 2 feet
(nearshore) to 4 feet (offshore).


DAB  80  66  83  61 /  80  60  40  10
MCO  85  68  84  63 /  80  60  50  20
MLB  84  68  84  63 /  80  70  60  30
VRB  84  69  84  63 /  80  70  70  30
LEE  84  67  83  63 /  70  40  30  10
SFB  84  67  84  62 /  80  60  40  10
ORL  84  69  84  63 /  80  60  40  20
FPR  84  68  84  62 /  80  70  70  30


AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.



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