Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 211935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
235 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The only concern near term is the amount of cloud mid/high level
cloud cover stream north ahead of the closed low moving across the
mid Mississippi River valley through Sunday. Expect a far amount
of clouds over the southern half of the cwa during the period,
thickest far south. If the clouds do thin enough, there will be a
threat of fog across the south with combination of melting snow
cover and light winds under the surface ridge. Will have to
monitor cloud trends overnight.

It looks warm out ahead of the Dakotas cold front with winds
increasing in the afternoon over the northwest CWA. THis should
provide decent mixing and temperatures warming into the lower 60s.
Remaining snow cover and clouds will limit heating into south
central with highs expected in the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Little concern in the longer term. Mild start with a slight
cooling trend midweek.

The models have trended a bit farther south with western CONUS
cutoff circulation - minus the GFS. We will trend toward the
drier solution for the Tuesday system for now. It looks mild ahead
of the front, with highs warming the mid/upper 60s across the
northern CWA. Depending on remaining snow cover, the far south
central may be warmer than we have forecast now. Timing of the
front is a bit faster on the ECMWF and rather dry with
energy/moisture split with the northern stream northeast and
associated with the upper circulation to the southwest.
Temperatures should cool back to below normal readings through the
rest of the period.

The next system is fast behind the departing Tuesday front. This
should drop another chance of precipitation into the area
Thursday/Thursday night portion. Doesnt look significant at this
time, but cool air follows in the northwest flow across the
western Great Lakes.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR conditions still expected through this period. Some threat of
fog formation over the area later tonight. But believe mid/high
level clouds should preclude anything significant. Will have to
continue to monitor clouds trends. Light se winds with high
pressure ridge in vcnty.

KMSP...No concerns at this time.

Sunday night through Monday night...VFR. Southeast wind less than
10 kt.
Tuesday...MVFR expected with a chance of rain. Northeast
wind 10 to 15 kt.
Tuesday night...MVFR possible early with a chance of rain.
Northeast wind 10 to 15 kt.
Wednesday...VFR. Northeast wind less than 10 kt becoming variable
5 kt or less.




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