Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 291313
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
913 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

No forecast changes needed this morning with quiet weather in
place as high pressure settles across the region. Despite the
full sunshine expected today, continued north-northeast flow in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front will keep highs for most
locations just a degree or two below climatological normal values,
but it will still be a fantastic day ahead with highs in the 70s
to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Pleasant spring weather will continue through the weekend as high
pressure moves across the region and out into the Atlantic Ocean.
The comfortable humidity levels will persist during this time with
lighter winds which will allow an afternoon sea breeze to develop
near the coast each afternoon. Early next week, moisture will
begin to increase as the winds around the high that will be well
to our east shift to southeast to south and strengthen. By
midweek, the next storm system will be moving into the southeast
states with the associated cold front approaching from the
northwest bringing the chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Behind this boundary some cooler and drier air will return for
later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

NE winds of 5 to 10 knots are in place this morning but winds
will shift to the N-NW near the coast by mid to late afternoon as
the sea breeze develops. Otherwise, high pressure building into
the area will yield VFR conditions area-wide throughout the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Winds and seas will subside today as high pressure moves over the
waters. Pleasant marine conditions then continue through the
upcoming weekend as high pressure remains in control with no
additional headlines expected. Early next week, winds and seas
gradually increase ahead of the next cold front that is forecast
to arrive Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Relative humidity values will dip into 20s this afternoon over
much of the area away from the immediate coast, but winds and ERC
values will remain below critical levels so no Red Flag conditions
are anticipated. Winds will shift to east to southeast over the
weekend with a sea breeze expected near the coast both afternoons.
Moisture will gradually increase during this time, but relative
humidity values will still drop into the middle 30s over inland
areas Saturday afternoon and into the upper 30s over the interior
Sunday afternoon, but no Red Flag conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  59  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  82  58  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  78  55  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  81  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  78  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  76  62  78  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Giarratana
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard


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