Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 212355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
755 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.UPDATE (Overnight and Thursday morning)...
No significant changes needed to the inherited forecast
from earlier today. Made a few tweaks to the temperature
trend this evening, but otherwise, a benign forecast over
the landmass will continue through the overnight and into
Thursday. Winds and seas will remain choppy to rough over
the Gulf waters tonight in the wake of Tuesday`s cold front.
Boaters will have to deal with the choppy and windy
conditions for another 30 to 36 hours or so before high
pressure finally builds down over the region and relaxes the
pressure gradient.

Although the sensible weather is benign, it will be on the
chilly side for many of us heading out early in the morning
Thursday. Widespread temperatures in the 40s can be expected
away from the coast...with lower 50s at the beaches. A few
spots from Brooksville northward may very well see a brief
period in the upper 30s toward sunrise in the morning.
Luckily...winds will be on the lighter side...keeping wind
chills from dipping to much lower than the actual
temperature readings. After dawn...nearly 100% of the
possible sunshine should make for a quick diurnal recovery
to the temps.


.AVIATION (22/00Z through 23/06Z)...
VFR conditions through the period. Less gusty NW/N winds
overnight into Thursday...generally remaining below 15


.Prev Discussion... /issued 306 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today and Thursday)...
A powerful positive tilt trough extends from the Southeast
U.S. along the Mid Atlantic coast. This system is driving
the rapid intensification of surface low pressure off the
New England coast, the fourth Nor`easter in a month! This
trough is also responsible for driving yesterdays cold front
southward, generating sporadic severe thunderstorms and
allowing much cooler drier post frontal air fill in behind
the front. This is associated with a building surface ridge,
which will dominate local weather over the next couple of

For the rest of today, breezy northwest winds continue in
response to a tight pressure gradient between intense low
pressure to the northeast, and a building ridge to the west.
These winds combined with low afternoon humidities have
allowed for elevated fire danger this afternoon, and are
also generating dangerous boating conditions offshore.
Additionally, strong cold advection has kept temperatures
in the 60s most areas so far, which is quite a feat for late
March, when our normal temperatures are in the upper 70s.

Temperatures will fall quickly after sunset as a
reinforcing shot of drier/colder air spills in. This will
ultimately allow lows to fall into the 30s for some areas
north of I-4. At this time, freezing temperatures do not
appear likely, though a few lower lying areas may dip to
near 32 degrees. Frost also seems to be less likely given
how dry the air will be. Areas along and south of I-4 will
generally fall into the low to mid 40s, with lower 50s along
the coast.

Tomorrow will be rather similar to today with highs ranging
from the low to mid 60s north to around 70 south of I-4.
Low humidity and clear skies will make for a very pleasant

Long Term (Thursday Night-Wednesday)...
High pressure will be in place across the area through
Saturday night, with temperatures and moisture gradually
moderating through the period as the high center settles
south to over the state and then shifts east to over the
Atlantic. A cold front will then settle into the deep south
and stall just north of the area for Sunday and Monday. A
few showers will be possible across the north Sunday night,
and then shift to the inland zones for Monday as the
moisture from this stalled boundary shifts and high pressure
bridges down the state from north of the boundary. High
pressure will then remain in place across the area through
the rest of the period with some drier air moving in for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be below normal
through Friday night, then near normal Saturday through
Sunday, then rise above normal Sunday night through the rest
of the period.

As a tight pressure gradient remains poised over the
waters, hazardous winds and seas will continue into the
early morning on Thursday. Some improvement is expected
Thursday afternoon, though winds will likely remain
cautionary into the evening. High pressure will gradually
build in over the waters Friday through the upcoming weekend
with favorable boating conditions. Another front may
approach the waters by the middle of next week with
increasing winds and seas.

Red flag conditions will remain possible over parts of the
interior peninsula this afternoon as breezy winds, high
ERCs, and low humidities create critical fire weather
conditions. Over the next few days, while winds will
generally remain light, long durations of low humidities are
expected each afternoon into Saturday. Areas with high ERCs
may require additional Red Flag Warnings. Moistening will
occur Sunday into next week as the flow becomes more
southerly, lessening the potential for wildfires.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  49  65  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  51  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  46  69  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  52  65  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  41  66  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  53  65  52  71 /   0   0   0   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60



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