Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 230253
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1053 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will track into northern New England tonight
with a few lingering showers and areas of fog tonight. High
pressure will bring a period of dry weather Wednesday through
Friday. Afternoon high temperatures in the 70s midweek will
steadily increase to the lower 80s for the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak low pressure across northern New York late this evening will
track into northern New England tonight. Any lingering showers
with a frontal boundary associated with this low will taper off
through midnight.

There are areas of fog across portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario this evening. This fog is light across the majority of
the cwa, but webcams show locally dense fog near and south of
downtown Buffalo along the immediate Lake Erie shoreline. It is
a similar story east of Lake Ontario with areas of dense fog
there as well. A dense fog advisory is in effect for areas east
of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This fog will initially be
fairly localized near the lakeshores and enhanced by low level
convergence. However, this should become more widespread
overnight when low stratus are likely to lower in these areas.
This is depicted by the HRRR model. In addition to the advection
fog, there is a risk of radiation fog later tonight. The
concern here is that if there is any clearing as high pressure
builds in, this would be quickly followed by dense fog. If this
happens, the dense fog advisory may need to be expanded.

High pressure will ridge into the lower Great Lakes late
tonight, with drier air gradually building into the region. Lows
tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s.

High pressure will expand across the region on Wednesday. There will
be some lingering stratus and fog in the morning, but this should
gradually dissipate by afternoon. High temperatures will be mainly
in the 70s, except slightly cooler along the immediate lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The weather will be absolutely spectacular across the region for the
over whelming majority of this period...as a negatively tilted ridge
within a split flow will track across the Great Lakes region. The
ridge will deamplify with time though...and this will end up placing
our region between a slow moving back door cold front to the north
and the fringes of a large shield of tropical moisture to our south.
As we start the weekend...this will eventually bring an end to the
fine stretch of weather with showers and thunderstorms entering the
picture.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Better agreement among Guidance packages with suppressing the
deeper subtropical moisture well south of the Lower Great Lakes.
Over the course of the Memorial day weekend look for
temperatures to nudge upwards (U70s-L80s)along with humidity
levels as deep southerly flow will transport some of the
available subtropical moisture to our south into our region. For
now, it looks like just increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the day Sunday as the northern upstream
shortwave trough over Quebec Canada influences the Lower Great
Lakes. Monday into Tuesday, a cold front will cross the region
as the shortwave passes by to our north through Ontario Canada
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier
weather with less humidity returns late Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure builds at the surface and aloft over New York
State.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main concern for aviation is areas of low stratus and the
potential for dense fog. The remains lots of low level moisture,
with low ceilings, especially east of the lakes where the the
moist air is mixing with the relatively cool lake waters. This
will result in mainly IFR conditions overnight, with areas of
dense fog. Another potential concern is if skies do clear out,
any clearing would quickly be followed by radiation fog.

Low moisture will gradually mix out Wednesday morning with
widespread VFR flight conditions by the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Sunday...MVFR. Showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will not be very strong, however there will be areas of
fog due to the warm moist air across the relatively cool lake
waters. Surface high pressure will near the region Wednesday,
passing over the Eastern Great Lakes Thursday, before shifting
towards the Southeast states on Friday. This will maintain light
winds and minimal waves through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ006>008-010-
     019-020-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel



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