Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 201751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
151 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

High pressure centered over northern Ontario with a ridge extending
down through the Great Lakes will maintain dry and chilly weather
through the end of the week. Temperatures will begin to rise by
early next week as the deep trough over the Northeast begins to move
off the east coast.


Visible satellite imagery late this morning is showing the northern
edge of high/thin cirrus extending into the NY Southern Tier. This
cloud cover is associated with the winter storm moving through the
Mid-Atlantic states. On the mesoscale, stiff easterly flow of 15 to
25 mph across western and central NY is driving lake effect clouds
over the southwest Lake Ontario shoreline. Otherwise, mainly sunny
skies will prevail today filtered through the high/thin clouds
expanding north.

Canadian surface high pressure will remain centered over northern
Ontario through tonight, with a ridge extending down into the Great
Lakes. This will keep the winter storm at bay. The northern edge of
light snow associated with the storm will make its closest pass to
our region later tonight, but model consensus keeps this south of
the NY/PA border with dry low level northeast flow producing plenty
of sub-cloud evaporation.

High temperatures will run close to 10 degrees below average this
afternoon, with highs in the lower to mid 30s in most areas. Lows
tonight will be held up to some extent by increased cloud cover and
a northeast breeze. Expect lows in the mid 20s on the lake plains of
Western NY and around 20 in the Southern Tier Valleys, with low to
mid teens for the North Country. The stiff easterly winds will


For the latter half of the week, low pressure will remain well to
our east, tracking from the Gulf of Maine to the Canadian Maritimes.
Meanwhile, Canadian high pressure will remain anchored south of
James Bay. This configuration will keep cool and mainly dry weather
in place across our region.

Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for some lake enhanced
cloudiness, however dry boundary layer air will limit the potential
for lake effect precipitation. On Thursday night and Friday, a
shortwave is forecast to move across the region embedded in the
western fringe of a broadly cyclonic flow aloft. This colder air
aloft may support some light lake/and or instability enhanced snow
showers south and east of Lake Ontario Thursday night and Friday.

Outside of this...the vast majority of the period will be simply dry
with below normal temperatures. High temperatures will remain the
30s each day, with nightly lows ranging from the upper teens to mid


A strong area of Canadian high pressure will expand southward across
the Great Lakes region through the weekend and into the start of
next week. Meanwhile another low pressure system will develop in the
lee of the Rockies, with the model consensus now solidly keeping
storm south of the region Saturday and Sunday before tracking off
the Atlantic coast. Thus, expect mainly dry and cool conditions to
persist across the region with highs in the 30s and nightly lows in
the 20s, with the potential for increasing sunshine through the


Surface high pressure will remain in place across northern Ontario
and James Bay through tonight, with a ridge extending down into the
Great Lakes. This will provide dry weather and VFR high clouds
streaming north across our region from a winter storm over the Mid-
Atlantic region. Low level northeast flow has allowed for some lake
effect clouds to develop over the western end of Lake Ontario today
but should remain north of KIAG. Wind backing slightly toward the
north tonight may shift the lake clouds south toward KIAG and
perhaps develop some near KROC.

Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.


Low pressure across the central and southern Appalachians will
strengthen off the Mid Atlantic coast later today. This ocean
low will then move slowly northeast and offshore of the Mid
Atlantic and New England Wednesday through Thursday. The
pressure gradient between this low and high pressure over
northern Ontario will produce moderate northeast winds on Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie, leading to a several day period of Small
Craft Advisory conditions.

Additionally, a significant portion of Lake Erie from Ripley to the
Buffalo Harbor remains ice covered. With strengthening northeasterly
flow this ice pack is shifting and breaking apart which is a hazard
to anyone that might try to venture out onto the ice.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ020-040-
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for



NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/Smith
LONG TERM...Church
MARINE...Hitchcock/Smith is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.