Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 211043
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
643 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive high pressure will build across the region this weekend,
ushering in a welcome period of fair dry weather and day to day
warming that will last through early next week, when temperatures
will finally climb back to much more typical springtime levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the region today where it will stall
tonight. Mostly clear and sunny skies will be found across the
region with just a few passing high, thin cirrus. With the airmass
largely unchanged, the high late April sun angle will modify the
airmass enough achieve afternoon temperatures into low to mid 50s
for most locations, except upper 40s on the higher terrain. Speaking
of the high April sun angle, don`t let the cool temperatures fool
you, the sun is just as strong as August 21, so it may be a good
idea to grab the sun screen if you`re heading out to enjoy the
weather this weekend.

Tonight, the clear skies, light winds and dry airmass will support
good radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 20s inland
to the low 30s across the lake plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build slowly east across the eastern
Great Lakes Sunday, providing a continuation of dry and sunny
weather. Weak northerly flow at 850mb will prevent any bonafide warm
advection, but ongoing airmass modification will support good day to
day warming. After a chilly start, expect highs in the mid to upper
50s in most areas. A light northerly breeze will keep the south
shore of Lakes Ontario and Erie cooler. Good radiational cooling
will allow lows to pull back into the 30s Sunday night, and even
some 20s east of Lake Ontario and in the cooler Southern Tier
valleys under clear skies.

High pressure will drift off the southern New England coast on
Monday, allowing for southerly return flow and warm advection to
begin in earnest as a mid level ridge begins to build into the
eastern Great Lakes. Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s across
lower elevations away from lake influences. Synoptic scale flow will
likely be light enough to allow local lake breezes to form, keeping
the lakeshores cooler.

Monday night and Tuesday the surface high will remain parked off the
southern New England coast, with a cutoff low drifting slowly north
through the Tennessee Valley. Ongoing southerly flow will bring a
gradual increase in mid level clouds ahead of this system.
Temperatures will remain mild, with highs in the mid 60s for lower
elevations so long as the clouds do not become too thick.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weather will become more unsettled again by the middle of next
week. The closed low over the Tennessee Valley will move northeast
to the Mid Atlantic and southern New England coast from Tuesday
night through Thursday. Deeper moisture and ascent to the north of
this track will likely produce showers across our region. Model
guidance begins to diverge later Thursday through Friday. The GFS
partially phases moisture from the first system with another
progressive cutoff low moving into the Ohio Valley by the end of the
week, keeping occasional showers going in our region through Friday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF keeps the two systems more separate, with a
period of mainly dry weather from later Thursday through Friday.
Given the model uncertainty, kept chance POPS through the end of the
week.

Temperatures will be dependent on how much rain and cloud cover
remains late in the week. Highs should pull back into the 50s
Wednesday with more extensive showers. By Thursday and Friday,
expect highs in the 50s if the wetter solutions verify, but 60s are
still possible if the drier ECMWF solution verifies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread VFR will prevail across the area today and tonight,
along with light winds, as high pressure builds across the region.

Outlook...
Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with a chance of rain
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
An extended period of tranquil conditions is expected this weekend
and early next week as high pressure first builds directly across
the Lower Great Lakes, then slowly drifts off to the east.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Church
NEAR TERM...Church/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Church
MARINE...Church



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