Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

FXUS63 KDTX 241408 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1008 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018


As of 1005 AM EDT...Ongoing forecast is in good shape with just a few
tweaks to account for the latest trends in observations and hi-res
model guidance today. Quiet Saturday is expected across the region,
with low pressure passing by well to the south bringing just an
increase in high cloud cover especially south of the I-69 corridor.
Occasional broken deck of stratocu will stream off of central Lake
Huron and Saginaw Bay in a moist northeast boundary layer flow.

Biggest weather concern for today will be gusty northeast winds,
especially late this morning and through the afternoon hours as peak
daytime heating commences. Gusts of 20-30 mph will be common, and
will bring a chill to the air. High temperatures will be variable
across the region, with lower 30s across the northern Thumb cooled by
marine-influenced air, and mid 30s to lower 40s across the rest of
the region, warmest south of the M-59 corridor.


Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018


Strong high pressure over Ontario will maintain a stout NE gradient
through the period. Occasional wind gust up to 20 kts will be
possible, but increasing coverage of cirrus may sufficiently impede
insolation so that both gusts and any boundary layer cu remain


* None

Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018


Significant shortwave will be shunted well south of the region today
as confluent upper level pattern remains positioned over the central
Great Lakes between upper low pressure re-organizing over the New
England region and a rather amplified upper ridge extending through
the upper midwest/western Great Lakes. The only impact from this
system will be a veil of cirrus which will bring filter sunshine to
the area today.

Extensive surface ridging will remain in place across the area both
today and Sunday as a large high pressure system builds expands into
southern Quebec in the wake of aforementioned upper low pressure
over the northeast CONUS (as it shift southeast over the western
Atlantic ocean and become cutoff from the northern stream storm
track). This will maintain the cool and dry conditions over the
weekend with highs in the 30s to lower 40s both days and lows in the
teens and 20s.

While dry weather will persist into Monday, some moderation in
temperatures can be expected as the upper ridge positioned must west
of the region shifts east and the core of cold air associated with
the surface high pressure system re-centers well northeast of the
region. Increased southeasterly flow around this high will allow
temperatures to climb into the mid/upper 40s in many locations.

The dry pattern of late will come to an end, at least temporarily,
Monday night into Tuesday as upper level troughing amplifies over
the western CONUS and the first in a series of shortwave
disturbances eject into the area. Temperatures appear mild enough to
bring pretty much all rain to the area during this period, climbing
form the middle 30s Monday night to around 50 by Tuesday afternoon.

The forecast area remains in southwest flow in advance of this large
upper trough for much of next week. This will maintain temperatures
in the 50s for daytime highs into Thursday before cooler readings
expand over area as the upper trough axis re-centers over the upper
midwest. These cooler conditions will then likely persist into next
weekend as the upper trough expands to cover much of southern Canada
and the northern tier of the CONUS.

Periodic precipitation chances can be expected within this pattern
as additional shortwave lift northeast into/near the area on through
the remainder of the forecast period. While a majority of this will
fall as rain, the gradual cool down late in the forecast period will
bring the potential for snow or a rain/snow mix back into play as
highs settle back into the 40s and lows drop back into the 20s/30s.


Strong and persistent onshore flow will continue through today and
persist into tonight. The NE fetch will favor funneling into Saginaw
Bay where gusts will approach near-gales at times. The exposed
nearshore waters along the Thumb will experience significant wave
heights of 4 to 6 feet with maximum wave heights in excess of 10
feet at times overnight.


Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.



You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.