Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 231732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
132 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018


Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

High pressure will bring fair and warmer weather through Friday.
There will be a few showers and thunderstorms by the weekend as
low pressure approaches.


Issued at 1058 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

We extended the marine fog advisory through Thursday morning. High
ambient dewpoints crossing the cold waters of the lake will create
areas of dense fog over the nearshore south of Whitehall.

UPDATE Issued at 959 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Visibilities have increased above a quarter mile as fog continues
to erode. As such, we will discontinue the dense fog advisory
at 10 am.

UPDATE Issued at 523 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Satellite and observations show an area of dense fog across much
of Muskegon, Kent, Ottawa and Allegan Counties. We will issue a
dense fog advisory for those counties. Parts of Oceana, Newaygo
and Van Buren Counties may also see patchy dense fog but coverage
will be more limited there.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Quiet weather in the short term as sfc ridging prevails and warmer
temperatures as heights rise through the end of the week. There is
a chance of more patchy fog tonight with light winds and good
radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

It will be very warm and rather humid Memorial Day weekend with high
temperatures daily well into the 80`s and low temperatures mainly in
the 60`s. A low pressure system will move slowly east across the
northern Great Lakes region Saturday into Sunday. It will bring
potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the
afternoon/evening both days as instability builds. However dry wx
should prevail through most of the weekend.

Warm and fairly humid wx will continue for Memorial Day into early
to mid next week. There is a small chance for some subtropical
moisture to move up into our region by midweek. This is looking less
likely to happen though as medium range guidance trends suggest a
high pressure ridge will build over the northern Great Lakes region
early to mid next week which would help to keep the subtropical
moisture/pcpn well to the south of our area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

The main concern deals with the potential for fog again tonight.
Tonight will be another night of good radiational cooling. The
atmosphere will be drier though. This is likely to keep the
potential for widespread sub IFR somewhat diminished. For now...I
kept the mention of a few hours of impact around daybreak....that
is forecasted to improve by mid morning. Will need to monitor
trends closely through the day.


Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas of dense fog will lift by noon with light winds and waves
through the next couple days.


Issued at 1234 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

There will be some rises on area rivers. However, only minor
flooding should occur. We should remain dry until the weekend. This
will allow rivers to recover a bit before rainfall returns.


LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>848.



LONG TERM...Laurens
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