Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
225 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Periodic light rain showers are expected through tomorrow. Wednesday
and Thursday will be dry with another chance of light rain on
Friday. Temperatures will remain generally on the cool side of


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Tennessee Valley barotropic low will continue to drift eastward
through tomorrow. Rain showers possible during this time on northern
deformation flank but lack of substantive forcing and resident dry
air will keep showers SCT and very light. 12Z KILN sounding tells
the story. Some theta-e advection noted this afternoon but not
likely to support much more than sprinkles with morning
deformation band washing out as it pushes north. Cloudy skies and
light showers will continue through tomorrow night with the best
chances south of US-24 where better moisture resides. Difficult to
pick out any particular time with best chances given lack of any
meaningful synoptic support. Highs tomorrow will be cooler but
with less diurnal dropoff given abundant clouds.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Wednesday and Thursday will be dry with mostly sunny conditions. Wed
will be on the cool side with 850mb temps near 0C and modest NNW
flow. Thu morning will be cold as well with prime radiational
cooling conditions. Held near mid 30s but low 30s and even upper 20s
certainly possible. Slight moderation late Thu as weak return flow
develops but still on the cool side of climo.

Next chance of rain arrives Fri. Moderate amplitude shortwave passes
through the area with a quick but decent frontal passage. Not
expecting a lot of rain but most places will probably see a few
hundredths. Weekend looking dry at this point. Sat will see another
drop in temps with another moderation early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Low level moisture advection will increase this evening and bring
deteriorating ceilings overnight. Latest forecast soundings and
MOS guidance continue to suggest IFR conditions early Tue morning
at both TAF sites. Still some uncertainty regarding exact timing
of MVFR/fuel alternate with some possibility it could arrive
earlier but latest obs support a slower transition. Some
improvement expected by midday Tue (16-18Z).





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