Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 270822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
422 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Issued at 421 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

High pressure at the surface and aloft will build across the
Great Lakes through Tuesday with sunny and hot weather. Highs will
range from 90 to 95.

Thereafter, showers and thunderstorms are likely as the remains
of tropical storm Alberto lifts into the southern Great Lakes


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 414 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Hot and increasing humidity as northeast extent of Texas plateau
to plains ridge envelops Upper Great Lakes this holiday weekend.
Background southwesterly flow to help lakeshore region to reach
into lower 90s today.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 4154 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Lesser confidence with respect to hot lakeshore temperatures
Mon as weak surface pressure field to allow for direct thermal
circulation penetration inland by midday/early afternoon.
Otherwise continued dry/hot/humid as strong mid level heights
build into midweek. Attention thereafter on remnants of Alberto
lifting northward from the FL peninsula Mon morning to the Lower
Ohio Valley by Wed morning. High precipitation efficiencies
anticipated with extratropical system as it enters CWA. Highest
pops Wed afternoon/night across west/southwest CWA. System
longevity/extreme qpf totals/flooding impact across CWA limited
fortunately as present intermountain vortex lifts into northern
plains/northwest Upper Great Lakes by Thu morning to aid in
eastward sweep of Alberto remnants downstream into southern
Ontario/Lower Great Lakes. Still potential for heavy rainfall
moving from upper to lower Kankakee/Wabash basins bears watch over
the next couple of days for significant river rises for the latter
part of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Area of weak convergence noted from near KLAF NE to White Lake MI
with 1 or 2 showers holding on. Non-zero chance for a showers at
KFWA next couple of hours but not worth anything in TAFs.
Otherwise calm winds will become light southwest and eventually
northwest as weak lake breeze moves inland. Not expecting any
convection, but lake breeze could manage to spark off a shower
during peak heating. Cigs/vsby will be VFR through the period.




LONG TERM...Murphy

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