Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
200 FXUS63 KMKX 101951 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 251 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of showers and thunderstorms will move through this evening. Small hail and gusty winds are expected, but widespread severe weather is unlikely. - Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) Sunday afternoon through Monday, and again mid to late week next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Rest of this Afternoon through Saturday night: A few showers have popped up this afternoon over far southeastern Wisconsin. These will remain very isolated, and should have minimal impacts. Attention then turns to a line of showers and thunderstorms that will move through the region this evening. These are associated with a cold front and compact upper level shortwave. The latest timing brings this activity to the Dells around 6 PM, the Madison area around 7 PM, and Milwaukee around 9 PM. This will be a relatively narrow area of precipitation, with rain chances only lasting an hour or two. Dry, well mixed low levels and low freezing levels favor frequent wind gusts to around 40 MPH and small hail with this activity. A few of the strongest storms may approach severe limits for a short time, but the severe threat is not expected to be widespread or persistent. Once the rain ends, skies should clear for a time late tonight. Lows will fall into the mid 40s. Saturday will be a generally pleasant day, with breezy northwest winds and highs in the 60s. A few showers or sprinkles will be possible near Lake Michigan during the late morning and afternoon due to weak convergence and continued cyclonic flow aloft. Temperatures Saturday night will fall into the mid 40s, before holding steady or starting to rise during the latter portion of the overnight hours, as warm advection commences across the region. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Sunday through Friday: A warm Mother`s Day is in store for Sunday, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. A cold front moving into the area will combine with increasing moisture to set off showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon (20-40% chance) and especially evening (40-60% chance) hours. Rain chances continue Monday, especially south of I-94, as a southern stream shortwave moves through the lower Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Upper level ridging will favor relatively quiet weather Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures around or just a touch above average. Rain chances increase again late in the week as a series of shortwaves begin to approach from the west. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for most of the next 24 hours hours, with the exception of in and near a line of showers and thunderstorms that is expected to move through the area this evening. This activity is currently expected to reach the Madison area around 7 PM CDT/00 UTC, and Milwaukee around 9 PM CDT/02 UTC. Brief drops to MVFR and IFR will be possible with this line, along with gusty winds and small hail. This activity will clear within a few hours, with VFR expected thereafter. Winds will remain from the west to southwest this afternoon, with occasional gusts, before turning northwesterly behind the showers/storms this evening. Breezy northwest winds are expected on Saturday. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 251 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A wave of low pressure will move across northern Lake Michigan tonight, then deepen slightly and slow down over northern lower Michigan on Saturday. It will drag a cold front across the lake tonight. Modest southerly winds will shift to northwest with the frontal passage and continue through Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will then move across the lake Saturday evening, with south winds returning and becoming breezy after it passes for Sunday. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee