701
FXUS63 KMKX 252031
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
331 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms at times today, with a the potential
  for more widespread, stronger thunderstorms late this
  afternoon and into tonight. The main threats will be
  localized flooding and gusty winds.

- On and off thunderstorms will continue through Thursday, with
  a high chance (70 to 80 percent) of exceeding an inch of
  rainfall from central to south-central WI.

- Rivers are currently rising, with additional rounds of rain
  and storms bringing potential for some areas reaching flood
  stage over the next few days.

- A return to higher heat and humidity expected going into the
  weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 331 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Tonight and Thursday:

Rain and storm chances continue through tonight into Thursday.
As the stationary front has pulled itself further north and
bisected part of southern Wisconsin, we`ve had showers across
south central and central Wisconsin and dry weather/partly
cloudy skies for our southern two tiers of counties. This
boundary has brought temps in the upper 70s to low 80s for areas
south of the front and low 70s to upper 60s for areas to the
north. There is also a split in the dewpoints with areas south
of this boundary having dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.
So for many this has been a hot and humid day and for others its
been wet and dreary.

There is a frontal boundary roughly across Richland Center Co,
WI stretching southeast to Stephenson Co, IL this afternoon.
Clouds on satellite are starting to percolate and bubble up
across southern WI and western IA. For the rest of the afternoon
and into the early evening hours this will be the place to
watch for any stronger to severe storms. For areas to the north
of the boundary toward central Wisconsin rain is ongoing and
conditions are more stable. So any storm that develops north or
moves off the frontal boundary northward will likely weaken.
Now, for the stronger storm threat.... its there, but its not
great. This frontal boundary is fairly weak and showers are
generating to the north along mid level WAA. So across the
southern where conditions are the best, there is not much of a
forcing mechanism to kick things off. This leaves chances low,
but non zero. Essentially a wait till it happens and when it
does keep your eyes on it. The main hazards will be winds and
heavy rain, but we can not rule out a tornado or two. There are
some good low level winds and shear able to sustain more
supercellular type storms along and south of the front. The
main concern for any stronger storm will be what it does as it
cross the front. This area has the best potential for tornadic
activity. The big IF being if any storms develop. The timing for
stronger storms is roughly now (3 PM ish)to 8 PM. Heading into
tonight there is expected to be a line of storms that move
through from the northwest. Thankfully as this line of storms
move through (there is much higher confidence in this line of
storms tonight) the window for stronger to severe storms will be
shrinking. We will be loosing some of the diurnal heating and
shear will weaken a bit. This means we will loose some of our
instability and especially our surface based instability which
will close the door on our tor potential. For more information
on the line of storms tonight look to the first paragraph of the
long term section.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 331 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Thursday night through Wednesday:

The unsettled pattern continues into the extended. A low
pressure system will be advancing from the Northern Plains
heading toward Wisconsin late Thursday. This area of low
pressure will continue east exiting Friday afternoon/evening.
Prior to this low pressure system moving in the stationary front
that was parked across central and southern Wisconsin will move
northward bringing more warm/moist air into the state. As the
low pressure system moves in late Thursday, a cold front will be
dragged across the state. Storms are expected to form along and
ahead of this cold front. With a good environment and southern
Wisconsin in the warm sector there is a potential for a few
stronger/severe storms. Strong wings looks to be the primary
threat. That being said the chances are low. With the current
pattern shear and time of day are two big things to keep an eye
on. Shear is kinda lack luster for southern Wisconsin which
could lead storms to have their outflow run ahead of the rain.
This setup isnt the most ideal for severe weather, especially
for people down stream. If these storms move through late then
we will loose diurnal heating. So will need to keep an eye
where/when these storms develop.

Once the cold front has passed to the east Friday
morning/afternoon, our chances for rain/storms decreases
dramatically. There could be a few showers that linger into the
afternoon along remnant outflow boundaries, but drier air will
move in.

For the weekend, heat and mostly dry weather returns. A warm
ridge will build in from the Plains and will build into
southern/central Wisconsin. High temperatures look to climb into
the 90s again with dewpoints in the 70s. Humidities will feel
hot and sticky again which leads to heat indices nearing 100.
Sunday, has the small exception to the mostly dry weather as the
ridge begins to exit another low will be on its heels for
Monday. This broad lift tries to nose in from the northwest, but
guidance is very split on this. With the hot and humid
conditions any forcing mechanism we have could generate
rain/storms, but were lacking that. So capped POPs at 15-25%
across our west and northwest.

Early next week temps look to cool off a bit, but rain chances
return. A low pressure system will likely cross the Upper Great
Lakes Region bringing another cold front through the state
Monday. Rain/storms are likely along this frontal boundary, but
timing and exact location are a bit fuzzy so opted for broad and
slightly lower POPS around 50-60%. Mostly dry and cooler
weather through mid week. The pattern looks to remain unsettled
with lots of shortwaves and troughs, but models are all over the
place leading to some low chance POPs around 10% peaking in
from time to time.


Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 331 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR to IFR ceilings will continue through the period. Lower MVFR
to IFR ceilings are located across south central Wisconsin and
the immediate lakeshore. Scattered rain and a few thunderstorms
continue across central Wisconsin this morning along the
stationary front.

VFR conditions with scattered clouds is along the WI/IL border.
An isolated storm or two may be possible along the WI/IL border
through the evening. Additional and better chances (50-60%) for
rain and storms tonight. This line of storms will move from the
northwest to the southeast/east this evening into tonight. Heavy
rain and brief gusty winds are the main concerns with any
storms. There will be additional chances for scattered rain
through Thursday.

Light winds will predominately be out of the northeast to east
through this evening for all but southwestern Wisconsin. In the
southwest, there are light southeast winds. Heading into
tonight winds across the area will become southerly tonight
then continue to back southwesterly by Thursday late morning/afternoon.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 331 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A stationary front is lingering across the southern two thirds
of the state and will remain there through Thursday. Multiple
rounds of rain and thunderstorm will be possible across the
southern two thirds. Across the northern third, there are
isolated chances for rain/storms. North of the front winds will
be light north to northeasterly. South of the front winds will
be light south to southwesterly. Thursday evening into Friday
morning, this frontal boundary will move northward bringing
southerly winds to the majority of the lake as a low pressure
system advances from the Northern Plains. Friday
morning/afternoon a cold front will pass the lake bringing
chances for rain/storms and bringing light north to northwest
winds.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch...WIZ056 until 7 AM Thursday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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