Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 231116
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
616 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.UPDATE...

Fog continues at this hour, but should quickly dissipate over the
next 60-90 minutes.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Fog will quickly dissipate over the next hour or so. After, VFR
conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Expect winds be
from the south to southeast through the period, generally under 10
kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 246 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018)

SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

Patchy fog this morning should quickly dissipate after sunrise,
with generally sunny conditions expected today. Temperatures
should warm to around 80, with light southerly winds.

Tonight, thunderstorms may develop across northern and western
Wisconsin, and there`s a very slight chance that a few remnant
storms could sneak into the northwestern portions of Columbia,
Sauk and Marquette Counties around daybreak Thursday. Overall
though, the vast majority of the area should remain dry. Lows
tonight will range from the low 50s near Lake Michigan to around
60 west of Madison.

LONG TERM...
Thursday through Sunday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Mid level ridging will dominate with surface high pressure over
the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday. A mid level trough will
swing through on Friday bringing precipitation and thunderstorm
chances. Southwest winds will be a little gusty as the pressure
gradient tightens due to low pressure passing by to the north. The
low level jet ramps up but is strongest to our west. With the
persistent low level southwest flow warm and humid air will push
into the region. Cloud cover may keep temperatures down a bit,
especially according to the ECMWF, but general consensus is highs
in the mid 80s by Friday. There will be plenty of instability
indicating some strong storms are possible but deep shear and
upper jet dynamics are lacking precluding mention of severe at
this time.

A general northwest flow pattern aloft with shortwaves dropping
through will bring precip and thunderstorm chances at times
Saturday and Sunday. Overall, flow is weak and warm temperatures
will continue.

Memorial Day through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Highs pressure moves through bringing quiet weather on Memorial
Day. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF with a
cold front moving down the lake during the day bring cooler
temperatures to eastern Wisconsin during the afternoon.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected during this time with
low precipitation chances.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...
Patchy fog has developed across the region this morning. In many
areas, this fog is very shallow, which is resulting in quite a bit
of variability within the observations, with some sites
oscillating between VFR and LIFR visibility. Fog will remain
possible through sunrise, when it should quickly dissipate. Once
the fog is done, expect VFR through the rest of the period. Winds
will be light from the south.

MARINE...
Quiet conditions are expected for the next few days across the
nearshore. Winds will be light from the south through at least
Friday, with little in the way of wave action. Thunderstorms
chances will start to increase Friday night.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ046-047-
     056>058-062>065-067>072.

LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...99


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