Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250021 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
721 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

All virga showing up on radar across central and southern
Wisconsin ahead of the cold front pushing through the region. Dry
weather is expected tonight. Winds will increase near Lake
Michigan tonight as the cold front pushes southward down the lake.


VFR condition expected through the TAF period. For far eastern
Wisconsin north to northeast winds will increase and gust 20-25
knots later tonight as a cold front pushes southward down Lake
Michigan. Seeing a few observations around 20 knots along the
northern portion of the lake which may be the initial surge of the
front. Winds may decrease for a time before dawn but wind gusts
around 20 knots are possible into mid morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 208 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018)


Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High.

An upstream cold front will move southward across southern
Wisconsin tonight. The bulk of of the synoptic lift with an
amplifying mid-level short wave remains north of the area
tonight. Models have backed off on precipitation with only an
isolated shower possible across Marquette and Green lake county
later this evening.

Wednesday Through Thursday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models are in pretty good agreement with taking high pressure
southeastward across the region Wednesday, then to the southeast
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will result in a
period of dry conditions across the area. Cooler temperatures
expected for Wednesday, as north to northeast winds gradually

Models are then showing a mid/upper level trough, and associated
cold front moving across the area Thursday night. Thus, continued
the chance PoPs for this period.

May still see a brief mix of rain and snow mainly north areas late
Thursday night, as temperatures fall. No accumulations are


Friday Through Tuesday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models suggest northwest flow at 500 mb will linger over the
region Friday into the weekend, with a ridge axis shifting east
over the region Sunday into Monday. Weak low pressure sliding
southeast across the region Friday afternoon into Friday night
should bring a cold front through the area. At this time, it looks
rather dry. Cool temperatures Friday.

High pressure then moves east through the region Saturday into
Saturday night, reaching the Great lakes region Sunday.

Southeast winds on the back side of the high should bring mild
temperatures back into most of the area. Lakeshore areas would
remain cooler with the southeast winds. Dry conditions are

A tightening pressure gradient develops Sunday night into Monday,
with south winds becoming gusty. This will bring steady warm air
advection into the region, with much warmer temperatures possible
by Monday. Temperatures may rise into the middle 70s for Monday,
even for areas near the lake with the gusty southwest winds,
although a lake breeze could affect the shore areas.  This
pattern should linger into Tuesday, so the warm temperatures are
expected to continue.


Look for VFR
rest of forecast. Some scattered-bkn clouds around 6 thsd ft with
an approaching cold front tonight.


Light northeast to north winds early this evening.  A cold front
will sweep across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan tonight.
A push of cold air behind the front will result in gusty north to
northeast winds tonight, gradually diminishing on Wednesday.
These winds will kick up waves of 4 to 7 feet by late tonight,
which will also slowly diminish on Wednesday. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for the period.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LMZ644>646.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for LMZ643.



Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Hentz is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.