Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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563
FXUS63 KMQT 271932
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
332 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 458 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
the srn plains through eastern North Dakota resulting in wnw flow
into the nrn Great Lakes. Mid level drying was apparent through the
region behind a shrtwv moving eastward from ern Lake Superior. At
the surface, a weak gradient and light winds prevailed between a
trough developing over the plains and ridge over the northeast
CONUS.

Today, with the mid level ridge continuing to build into the area,
capping will strengthen enough to prevent convection today. Under
mostly sunny skies and with 850 mb temps in the 15C-18C range, temps
will climb to around 90 near the WI border and into the lower 80s
inland east. Otherwise, prominent lake breezes will keep temps in
the mid to upper 60s along the Great Lakes. It will not feel
quite as uncomfortable, as dewpoints drop into the low to mid 50s
west but remain closer to 60 east.

Tonight, Although confidence in the shra/tsra coverage/location in
Upper Michigan is still low, models have been consistent with the
development of convection late tonight over nrn MN that fueled by
a 30-40 knot wsw low level jet and 850 dewpoints to around 12C
could spread into the west half of Upper Michigan between 06z-12z.
MUCAPE values in the 1k-2k range along with moderate effective
shear could support some stronger storms with small to marginally
severe hail.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

Blocking pattern across the western CONUS will break down early this
week as the closed low and mid-level trough over the
central/southern Rockies eject slowly eastward. Mid-upper level
ridging will persist over the western Great Lakes allowing the well
above normal temperatures and humid conditions to persist for the
first half of the week. After a period of potentially active weather
Wed night into Thu as the western CONUS trough and remnants of TS
Alberto move through, expect a bit of a cool down later in the week
into next weekend!

Tuesday through Wednesday, The warmth will persist through the
middle of the week as an amplified upper level ridge (around 585 dm
5h ridge heights) builds over the Great Lakes region. Expect
temperatures inland from the Great Lakes approaching the upper 80s
with cooler temps each day near the Great Lakes. Overnight lows will
also remain on the mild side, generally 50s to lower 60s.

By late Wednesday through Thursday, as the main upper-level trough
from the west continues to lift across the northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley, medium range models indicate that remnants from
Tropical Storm Alberto moving up from the Gulf of Mexico will be
ingested into the trough as it lifts toward the Great Lakes region.
This setup will favor increased moisture for the potential of more
widespread showers and thunderstorms late Wed into Thu, especially
into the east half of the cwa. This will certainly be a time period
to keep an eye on for more active weather.

Friday into next weekend, a brief cool down and a break from the
active weather looks on tap as troughing moves over the eastern
Great Lakes and we get back under the influence of a mid-level high
pressure ridge and Hudson Bay sfc high pressure. Temperatures during
this time period may still run above normal, but will feel much more
seasonable for this time of year. There is model uncertainty out to
next Sunday on timing of the next shortwave trough moving in from
the Northern Plains with really only the ECMWF showing quicker
timing with the shortwave into the Upper Lakes, but model consensus
and GEFS ensemble mean 5h ridge height suggest that the mid-upper
level ridge should hold over the western Great Lakes ensuring
another day of dry conditions.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 124 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

Through the early morning hours, we could see the potential for fog
over areas that saw heavy rain earlier today as winds become light
and skies continue to clear out. As high pressure moves across the
region today, winds will be fairly light. Expect ceilings to remain
VFR, except at KSAW where the marine layer may move inland as flow
becomes onshore this afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 353 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018

This morning, surface troughing has begun to push south across the
Lake. Along the leading edge of this trough, expect a brief increase
in winds to upwards of 20 to 30 knots. Otherwise, winds are expected
to remain less than 20 knots today, and through the middle of next
week. Expect areas of fog to develop and linger at times into the
weekend as multiple rounds of rain are expected over the lake and
the humid airmass lingers. Fog may be dense at times. Thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon into sat night, and then again early
next week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for LSZ243>245-248>251-
     263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...Ritzman



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