Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 201929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
329 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018

High pressure and clear skies continued to dominate the weather
across Upper Michigan today. Temperatures climb into the 50s and
lower 60s, with cooler temperatures near the Great Lakes, with very
dry conditions in place.

Over the next 24 hours, expect the quiet weather to prevail. Tonight
will be another chilly night as light winds and mostly clear skies
will give way to ample radiational cooling. Some of the models show
the potential for fog overnight into early Saturday morning, but
given how dry conditions are have opted to leave mentions out as the
fog would likely be very shallow ground fog. During the day on
Saturday, a weak shortwave will dig southeast across the Upper Great
Lakes region. Low-level moisture ahead of this shortwave, as
evidence on the low-level water vapor imagery upstream of the
region, will increase compared to the past few days so do not expect
dew points to tank as low as they have previously. As a result of
this slight uptick in low-level moisture, diurnal heating should
allow for diurnal cumulus to develop. Afternoon highs will climb
into the 50s and 60s again on Saturday, with 40s closer to the Great
Lakes. Areas slightly inland from the Great Lakes will see high
temperatures earlier in the afternoon before the lake breezes kick

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018

NAM shows a closed 500 mb low in the central plains 00z Sun.
Shortwave ridging moves into the upper Great Lakes Sat night. This
ridge remains over the area through Sun. Quiet and dry weather
through Mon with temperatures above normal.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the
southeastern U.S. and another trough over the northern and central
plains 12z Tue. The trough over the plains moves through on Tue into
Tue night. Another shortwave moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z
Thu and this shortwave digs into the lower Great Lakes 12z Fri. Will
see some rain and snow showers out of this. Temperatures slip back
to below normal for most of this forecast period.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 144 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018

VFR conditions with light winds are expected to prevail over the
next 24 hours.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 328 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018

Winds will remain less than 15 knots through the weekend. Early next
week through and towards the middle of next week, winds will pick
back up with speeds between 15 and 25 knots.

Issued at 440 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2018

Snowpack will be melting through at least early next week under
warming which will push temps to around normal or even slightly
above normal. Mostly sunny days thru the weekend will strongly aid
the melting. With nighttime temps falling blo freezing and dewpoints
likely remaining low, only a gradual increase in melting/runoff
should occur. Early next week, min temps may not fall blo freezing
for a night or two, increasing runoff potential, though dewpoints
will likely remain low, keeping melting of snow slower than would
otherwise occur. The addition of notable rainfall is the biggest
concern to increase flooding potential. Fortunately, there will be
no pcpn thru the weekend, and pcpn which occurs Tue/Wed should be on
the light side as a cold front passes. Temporary cool down following
the frontal passage will then slow down the ongoing snow melt.
Overall, these conditions don`t suggest any significant concerns
with the snow melt over the next 7 days. While melting will likely
be relatively controlled given the forecast, rivers will begin to
respond this weekend and minor flooding is quite possible at some
point down the road on the usual rivers that experience spring

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Ritzman
HYDROLOGY...JLB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.