Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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203 FXUS61 KBTV 121741 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 141 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues today with scattered showers and cool temperatures. Once again hit and miss type showers are anticipated with mostly light rainfall as temperatures climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s. A warm front will produce more showers on Monday followed by a cold front with showers and embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday. Highs warm back into the mid 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday, before a slight cooling trend occurs for midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 127 PM EDT Sunday...Light rain showers continue across the region this afternoon, with an increase in coverage compared to this morning. Temperatures remain cool for this time of year, currently ranging from the upper 40s in central Vermont to the 60s in the St. Lawrence Valley. Minimal changes were made to the forecast with this update, just small adjustments to temperatures to reflect the latest trends. Previous discussion below: Water vapor shows the center of a closed and vertically stack cyclonic circulation is located near Buffalo, NY this morning. Meanwhile, radar and sfc obs are indicating some scattered light rain showers prevail over northern NY into parts of the CPV, while most of central/eastern VT remains dry. The theme for today wl be a slightly more robust areal coverage of showers, especially spine of Green Mtns into northern NY, including the CPV, but a complete washout is not anticipated. Timing of areal expansion of precip is challenging, but thinking highest pops wl be btwn 15z-22z today, with activity waning toward evening. Have noted a small pocket of sfc based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg with rather steep sfc to 3 km lapse rates, so similar to yesterday a rumble or two of thunder is possible, but feel coverage wl be <10% so have not included in grids attm. In addition, freezing levels are near 4500 feet or 850mb and given cooling temp profiles aloft, cannot completely rule out some very localized pea size hail in the stronger updrafts this aftn, similar to yesterday. Areal coverage and forecaster confidence is too low to mention in grids attm. Progged 850mb temps hover near 0C today with 925mb temps of 7 to 8C, supporting highs only in the mid 50s to lower 60s, with mostly 40s in the mtns above 2000 feet. Based on deepest 850 to 500mb rh progs, weak differential heating boundary, and rotation of s/w energy around cyclonic circulation I have likely pops over northern NY with chc pops extending into VT. As sfc heating wanes and moisture profiles decrease with building heights tonight, showers wl dissipate with skies becoming at least partly cloudy, with some mostly clear skies likely in NY. Based on upstream obs some patchy valley fog is possible btwn 04z-10z where clearing develops and rain occurs today, something to watch moving forward, especially as winds become light overnight. On Monday, clouds quickly overspread the region from west to east as a warm frnt approaches. Additional light showers are likely especially btwn 15-21z from northern NY into portions of VT. Highs on Monday warm back into the 60s with southerly flow and modest 925mb to 850mb waa. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 403 AM EDT Sunday...Warmer, wetter conditions continue to unfold during this period. Monday night a warm front type of feature featuring strong mid-level warm air advection will further push through the region, with focus of showers generally in northern areas where rainfall, PoPs, and thunder chances look greatest. Some elevated instability could lead to rumbles of thunder with the showers that push through. While not particularly high, PWAT will surge based on progged 3 hourly change upwards of 0.4" associated with a modest southerly low level jet. This regime should keep temperatures steady or even warm overnight. For Tuesday, particularly during the afternoon/early evening, the chance of thunderstorms generally has increased a bit. Likewise, high temperatures have jumped a few to several degrees from the previous forecast, especially in much of Vermont, associated with more likely sunny breaks in the cloud cover before showers return. There is a faint signal for severe weather, mostly driven off of the GEPS, with a scenario that shows upwards of 30% of members with CAPE exceeding 500 J/kg overlapping bulk wind shear greater than 30 knots Tuesday afternoon. Most scenarios keep us too cloudy and cool to get too much instability, and the large scale forcing for strong storms looks fairly poor with a weak frontal system and height falls during this period. Overall, the signal for some heavy rain is relatively high compared to strong thunderstorms, especially late Tuesday when the weak frontal boundary slides into the region and may be slow to progress to our southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 403 AM EDT Sunday...Tuesday night will likely be wet with a low chance of embedded thunder, with strong model agreement on precipitation at this time. Chances of rain generally shift southeastward over time through such that Wednesday may wind up being dry for many. That being said, with continuity and blend of ensemble data that shows showers lingering, we keep rain chances through Wednesday night while tapering them off to near zero by Thursday morning. Before the frontal boundary shifts to our southeast, 0.5" to 0.75" is the most likely rainfall total in Vermont and northern New York based on the NBM Quantile Mapping and Dressing technique, with high end potential based on the 90th percentile, primarily in Vermont, of up to 1.75". Note that near zero rainfall is just as likely a possibility, associated with a much faster frontal passage on Tuesday afternoon. Following the potential rainy conditions midweek, as a coastal storm looks to pass well to our south, we will sit in a zone of weak high pressure that may provide a lull in unsettled weather for Thursday into Friday morning. The upper level pattern is pretty divergent for late in the week, so while precipitation chances increase again Friday into Saturday, the nature of the showers and any convective chances is rather uncertain. Temperatures generally look to be seasonably warm with highs mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s through this period. There is relatively large uncertainty for Saturday, especially in southern portions of Vermont, based on NBM standard deviation values, so expect changes moving forward on that day`s forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...Scattered to numerous showers continue across the region this afternoon, with unsettled conditions expected to continue for the next several hours. Primarily VFR flight conditions can be found at all terminals, although occasional MVFR ceilings can be found within showers. Showers will gradually diminish towards 00Z Monday, with VFR conditions prevailing overnight. With the recent rainfall, there is the possibility of some patchy fog overnight if skies clear out, particularly at KSLK, although confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast. Winds this afternoon have been southerly between 4 to 8 knots, and will trend light and variable overnight. Outlook... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Kremer/Taber SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Kremer