540
FXUS61 KCTP 121905
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
305 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level troughing will exit Pennsylvania tonight, with fair
weather expected for most of tonight and Monday. A cold front
will push through on Tuesday bringing additional showers and
thunderstorms. Another wave of low pressure tracking south of
the Commonwealth will continue showers conditions on Wednesday,
followed by drier conditions for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Filling close low over northeast PA exiting to the ESE but still
supporting sct to nmrs open cellular showers over central and
eastern areas this afternoon. Heights are rising from west to
east, and the hope is that the western half of central PA may
enjoy a few hours of improving conditions by this evening.
Meanwhile scattered to numerous diurnally-driven showers over
are particularly numerous along the dissipating occlusion over
the eastern part of the forecast area, and there could be a few
CG strikes from Tioga County southward to the Lower Susq River
Valley.

Surface ridging building into the region tonight and associated
clearing skies/light winds along with wet ground where it
rained should promote valley fog development. Ensemble prob
charts indicate the eastern part of the state is likely to see
the most extensive fog, which could develop as early as late
evening. Central and western areas *may* be able to glimpse the
waning aurora, but given latest space weather forecasts that
window appears to be closing quickly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging building over PA should result in a warmer
and drier Monday overall. However, a weak area of low pressure
and its attendant warm front lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks
could produce a few morning showers or afternoon tsra across
the northern half of PA. Partly sunny skies and a developing
southwest flow should push readings into the low to mid 70s.

A wave of low pressure will approach from the Ohio Valley
Tuesday before crossing the area Tuesday night, accompanied by a
renewed chance of rain and perhaps some thunder.

Low pressure slides off of the Mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday
with decreasing showers expected by Wed aftn and evening. We may
see our best drying period in over a week arrive Wednesday
night and potentially last into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lingering unsettled weather is possible into Wednesday, as
upper-level low pressure passes overhead.

Medium range models diverge a bit late this week. The ECMWF
continues to show unsettled weather persisting into Thursday,
as the upper- level low pressure very slowly pulls to our east.
The GFS/GEFS is a bit more optimistic, showing an upper- level
ridge bringing a period of dry weather from Wednesday night
through early Friday.

Both medium range models are in agreement in bringing our next
weather maker into the area later Friday into Saturday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms. The result would be
another Saturday with rain, easterly winds, and below average
temperatures - a beloved tradition over the last couple months
in Central PA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As an upper level low rotates overhead and gradually drifts
southeast this evening, periods of rain will continue. Prevailing
VFR conditions are expected as a result of a combination of
lifting ceilings and clouds becoming more scattered. Scattered
showers should not drop visibilities too much.

Skies will clear out tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds
in. Light winds with clear skies and wet surface conditions will
create ideal conditions for fog in the Susquehanna Valley on
Monday morning. Fairly strong signal for IFR conditions at MDT,
LNS, and IPT with an outside chance at UNV toward daybreak.

After fog lifts/mixes out, VFR conditions prevail for everyone
on Monday. A few light showers will impact northern airfields
Monday (BFD, UNV, and IPT), but no restrictions are expected at
this time.

Outlook...
Tue...Showers/tstms and reductions developing.

Wed...Showery weather and reductions continue.

Thu...Slow improvement, with a few lingering showers possible.

Fri...Deteriorating conditions with showers increasing.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Evanego
AVIATION...Banghoff