066
FXUS61 KCTP 192355
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
755 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is building into the region. Predominantly dry
conditions, light winds and warmer temperatures are expected to
hold into the middle of the upcoming week. A storm system should
arrive later Wednesday into Thursday bringing the next chance
of showers and thunderstorms to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As the evening progresses, we will continue to see the
lingering cu dissipate, leaving mainly clear skies around or
shortly after sunset.

However, a light easterly flow in the llvls persists and could
once again bring in Atlantic moisture overnight. Expect stratus
to return to the ern half (or more) of the CWA. There could
also be fog around overnight, but lack of rainfall during the
day and the potential for the development of low clouds may work
against it. Dewpoints should remain in the 50s, however, and
temps should dip to near the dewpoints overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As with Sunday AM, any low clouds will have to burn away with
the mid-May sun. However, earlier dissipation of the stratus
should help temps Monday aftn rise a few to several degrees
warmer than Sunday`s maxes.

There could be just enough instability across the nrn tier of
counties in the aftn to pop a lonesome SHRA/TSRA. Left PoPs in
the 20-30pct range for now. The support aloft is tough to find
except for perhaps a short wave trough rolling over the upper
Great Lakes.

Mon night looks similar to the last few nights, with perhaps
less of a reprisal of the nighttime stratus. There could still
be some fog, but we`ve only mentioned patchy fog for the time
being. Mins will probably be a bit milder than Mon AM as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Confidence is increasing in the timing of the frontal passage to
be Wednesday afternoon and evening. The surface low is currently
progged to be positioned north of the great lakes and track well
north of PA into central Ontario and eventually into Quebec. The
resulting cold front will track across the Ohio Valley and into
the Mid-Atlantic region. This will bring showers and
thunderstorms across PA late Wednesday into early Thursday,
however uncertainty remains as to the extent of these storms.
Southerly flow ahead of the front will bring warm air advection
and instability, but medium range guidance suggests these
storms could breakup as the front crosses into central PA.
Therefore PoPs have been capped at 60% for now.

After the front moves through, considerable uncertainty still
exists in terms of how much and how frequent rain will be. A
chance of showers remains in place through the end of the week
despite zonal flow aloft providing little in the way of synoptic
forcing. The next chance for a widespread soaking rain will
come during the weekend with a center of low pressure developing
across the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon, and even the latest
guidance is suggesting these weekend showers could be scattered
to isolated given a lack of significant forcing and some ridging
building in Friday to Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the evening as
high pressure continues to build eastward. Restrictions are
expected overnight, however, as moist flow off of the Atlantic
leads to the development of low stratus for sites east of the
Allegheny Front. IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected along with
MVFR/IFR visibilities. Some fog development is expected for
western sites as well where skies will remain mainly clear.

Fog across the west will dissipate quickly in the morning, but
the low clouds to the east will be slower to break up. MVFR
ceilings could remain in place across the Lower Susquehanna
Valley through 18Z. Once the clouds do finally dissipate, VFR
conditions are expected area-wide with mainly clear skies and
light winds. Some guidance shows the potential for a few showers
or possibly a thunderstorm across the northern tier tomorrow
afternoon, but confidence is too low to include any mention of
rain in the TAF for BFD at this point.


Outlook...

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Evanego
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Evanego
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Bauco