Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 131122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
622 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018


Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Early this morning northerly flow brought scattered high clouds
to the area. Temperatures ranged from the mid 20s to the low 30s
across the area. Otherwise, high pressure continues to build south
into the area. This high pressure will be the main forecast
concern in the short term period.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Temperatures are the main forecast concern in the short term as
northerly flow and CAA at H85 will bring cooler temps in. With
respect to yesterday, temperatures will be cooler. Winds will once
again be a factor today. It will look warmer out than it will feel
with wind gusts up to 30 MPH. Overall consensus forecast temps
were used with slight tweaks a couple of degrees today. Tonight,
the National Blend had an area of cold temperatures along the HWY
20 corridor. With a nod to this forecast, tweaked lows down a
degree or two across that area. Otherwise, bundle up is the
message today, winter is not quite done.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Change in the forecast pattern is the main point in the long term.
The more southern track of some guidance last night is now what
the consensus is of the guidance tonight. Overall warming pattern
is now replaced with a cooler pattern with one day of 50s. While
this is a change tonight compared to other nights, my confidence
in the current solution is higher than previous ones due to model
to model consistency. Models are pretty consistent through Monday
of next week. Where there are two system forecast to affect the

The first will be Friday into Saturday evening. Overall setup is
for a warm advection wing of precip to begin near daybreak across
the southern CWA. With temperatures near freezing and stout warm
nose, a couple hours of fzra or pl will be possible across the far
south on Friday AM. Temperatures will warm as the WAA brings
higher temps to the area. Friday night into Saturday, CAA will
bring cooler air into the area and the possibility of light snow.
Overall impacts from the winter precip look to be light across the
area. High pressure moves in quickly for Saturday leading to a
quiet day and temps above freezing for snowmelt.

The next system will be Monday and close to a repeat of Friday
nights system. While there is good model to model consistency, how
far out it is makes me have lower confidence than Friday`s system.

Another point to note is that Wednesday will see Very High GFDI
values across most of the area. There will be a heightened
grassfire threat Wednesday. At this time it doesn`t look like a
fire weather watch will be needed.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions will be observed at TAF sites for the next 24
hours. Northwest winds will increase late this morning to 10-15
kts with gusts of 20-25 kts before settling down this evening.




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