Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 220533
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1233 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

...06z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

The weak low continues to slowly drift northeast through our CWA
this afternoon. While the rain amounts have been light since Noon,
when the mid level dry air spread over the region, the low level
convergence in the northern sections continues to generate drizzle
and fog. South of the low track, mild air and very limited heating
has allowed for temperatures to climb to the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

While the low moves away tonight, the weak flow around it and
saturated low levels will keep conditions damp and mainly cloudy
tonight. Any clearing, which is possible south tonight, will be
accompanied by fog. That fog may be dense and could warrant an
advisory. With the low clouds tonight, temperatures will be slow
to fall, and dewpoints should be maintained. Thus lows in the mid
50s north to the lower 60s south. Any showers after 6 PM will be
isolated and rapidly ending in the far east and northeast.

Tuesday should see a cloudy morning northeast, possibly dense fog
in the south, with improving conditions everywhere during the day,
as high pressure moves through the region. This surface high will
move quickly east, but the upper level ridge is expected to remain
west of our CWA. That sets the stage for warm advection
thunderstorms well northwest of the CWA Tuesday night, which
could, in a dissipating mode, slide towards the CWA after
midnight. While pops are in the chance range late at night
northwest, it seems any significant thunder will remain well west
of our area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Warm and rather humid weather will last through the extended, with
some threat for thunderstorms at times, with the southern edge of
the zonal flow aloft nearby, and at times a weakness in the upper
ridge indicated by models. This mid summer pattern does not
support high pops and anyone with outdoor plans this Memorial Day
weekend should view this as typical summer weather, not a wash
out.

Highs in the lower to mid 80s each day will drop to the lower to
upper 60s at night. This pattern would support hot and humid
weather if the moisture transport were stronger, but with the gulf
appearing blocked by the flow around the tropical disturbance
there, we`ll just be dealing with Midwestern transpiration from
soil and plants.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Areas of low MVR to IFR stratus north of I80 into this morning,
with patchy VFR to MVFR BKN CIGS south of I80. The bigger impact
will potentially be areas of fog, which could become locally
dense into early Tue morning where areas clear off cloud-wise,
along with light and variable wind zones. Otherwise, areas of
MVFR to IFR fog even under the cloud cover through 14z this
morning. Passing ridge will make for light west to northwest sfc
wind regime on Tuesday, and lifting CIGs to VFR or mainly clear by
late morning. A warm front will start to organize acrs the
central into northern plains this evening, changing the sfc winds
to a light east to southeast direction as the evening progresses.
  ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...12



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