789
FNUS73 KMPX 131204
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Lake Alex Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
704 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For Lake Alex RX,  Temperatures climb into the upper 60s
and lower 70s that will help our RH values drop into the 30s by
the afternoon hours. Our MinRH will be 30 percent by mid afternoon.
Temperatures climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s that will help
our RH values drop into the 30s by the afternoon hours. Winds will
be somewhat light today, around 10 mph out of the north, and mostly
sunny skies will be obscured by hazy wildfire smoke.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy smoke late in the
                    morning.
Temperature.........54 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................50 percent at ignition...Min 30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /27100 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /56600 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5100 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......CLR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....PTY
Weather type....SMK
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  57  60  62  63  64  64  64  64  65  61  57
RH..............50  43  41  36  35  32  32  31  31  30  36  42
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..8   9   9   10  9   9   9   9   8   8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.13  13  14  14  14  14  14  13  13  13  10  9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.8 3.5 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  14  14  13  13  13  13  13  12  13  9   10
Haines index....4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east
                    around 7 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (48400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 13 mph shifting to the east 9 to
                    12 mph overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (53300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hewett
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413920.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org