176
FNUS73 KMPX 111749
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Hagstrom...FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1249 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
Humidity values are trending lower than previously forecast. Below
is the updated Spot Forecast for the Hagstrom Rx burn.

For this afternoon, expect mostly sunny skies humidity values
dropping into the lower 20s percent this afternoon as temperatures
climb into the 70s. There is  a small chance that humidity values
could fall into the upper teens. Surface level winds are forecast
to be primarily out of the west at 5-10mph today. These light speeds
will also mean that the wind direction could vary north or south at
times from due west.

Please contact our office at 952-361-6671 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........65 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................31 percent at ignition...Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 8 to 14
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /10200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /98800 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (111900 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph increasing to around 20 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  MC  PC  PC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............65  67  71  73  74  76  76  77  77  76  73  68
RH..............31  30  28  26  24  22  22  23  23  25  28  40
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..10  9   8   9   10  12  13  14  13  10  9   9
20 FT wind gust.    12  13  14  15  16  18  17  17  16  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.4 3.9 6.0 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.6 7.5 5.4 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.8   10  13  13  14  16  17  20  17  17  12  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (81000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (4700 knot-ft) early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Max 79.
RH..................Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 10 to 17 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (102200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (108900
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 13 mph shifting to the northwest 13
                    to 21 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Beitlich
Requested by...Millette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413766.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov