Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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175 FXUS64 KOHX 311727 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1227 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Visible satellite imagery this morning shows thick cirrus cloud cover which has held temperatures down into the mid 60s on the Plateau and the 70s elsewhere. However, this cloud cover is shifting eastward, and enough sunshine is anticipated this afternoon to allow highs to reach the 70s and 80s. Low level moisture has also begun increasing with dewpoints up into the low 60s across our southwest, and this may be enough for a few showers to pop up by late afternoon into the evening in that area. However, bulk of rain will arrive overnight and spread eastward across the midstate through Saturday morning as an upper level trough shifts eastward from the southern Plains. Activity will become more scattered by Saturday afternoon/evening, with highest pops over the west and lowest in the east. Clouds/precip will keep temperatures down significantly tomorrow, with highs only in the 70s. Forecast soundings for Saturday show unusually strong low and deep layer shear for early June, but little or no instability, so our already low severe threat for tomorrow appears even lower than previous. However, if more instability develops than models indicate, a strong to possible severe storm could occur during the day, with a damaging wind or even low-end tornado threat possible due to the intense low level shear. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible around the clock from Saturday night through Tuesday as weak zonal flow continues aloft and embedded shortwaves move across the region. Pops will be in the slight to low chance category during this timeframe as nothing major is apparent, with temperatures near normal with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the 60s. By Wednesday into Thursday, a strong upper level trough will approach from the northwest, bringing more widespread showers and storms and higher precip chances. In addition, GFS forecasts PWATs to rise to near the 2 inch mark, indicating potential for locally heavy rain and some flooding. 12Z guidance continues to show a cold front moving across the midstate Thursday afternoon, with cooler and dry weather returning for the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 High clouds will linger on the remainder of today with southeasterly winds slowly shifting south. Rain will move in overnight tonight and last through the afternoon hours tomorrow. MVFR to IFR cigs are likely. Gusts will also pick up to near 20 kts during the day tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 77 65 83 / 50 70 70 40 Clarksville 63 75 65 81 / 80 80 60 30 Crossville 57 72 58 75 / 20 50 70 60 Columbia 63 76 64 82 / 60 80 70 40 Cookeville 62 74 60 77 / 20 60 70 60 Jamestown 58 74 58 76 / 10 50 70 60 Lawrenceburg 63 74 64 81 / 60 70 70 40 Murfreesboro 64 77 64 83 / 50 70 70 50 Waverly 63 74 64 82 / 80 80 60 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Baggett