542
FXUS63 KSGF 141810
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
110 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will remain possible early this morning.
  Visibilities could drop below one mile at times and will
  likely vary with time and over short distances.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
  across portions of the area from late this morning into early
  this evening.

- Dry conditions are then expected Tuesday night and through
  much of the day Wednesday.

- Additional Shower and thunderstorm chances will occur at times
  from late Wednesday evening into Friday. A few strong storms
  may be possible along with locally heavy rainfall and a minor
  localized flooding risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper level low and surface low are currently moving east
through the area early this morning. A few isolated showers and
maybe a few rumbles of thunder will be possible early this
morning but most locations will remain day through the early
morning hours.

Lows this morning will cool into the middle to upper 50s. Some
patchy fog has developed across portions of the area and will
remain possible through the early morning hours. Widespread
dense fog is not expected as clouds are increasing from the
northwest, but patchy fog with visibilities reduced to one mile
or less will be possible at times but will overall be localized
in nature. visibilities will likely vary with time and over
short distances this morning. Any fog that develops should
dissipated completely by the mid morning hours.

As the upper level and surface lows move off to the east today
weak uncapped instability and moisture will wrap around the low
today. As this occurs isolated to scattered showers and storms
will develop across portions of the area from late this morning
into early this evening. This activity will not be widespread
in nature at any given time and the overall best chances for
this activity will be east of Highway 65. No severe weather is
expected today as instability and shear will remain on the
weaker side.

Highs this afternoon will warm into the upper 60s to the lower
70s as clouds remain over the region. The rain will move off to
the east by tonight with dry conditions expected overnight as
lows cool into the lower to middle 50s. Some patchy fog may be
possible again tonight into Wednesday morning.

An upper level ridge will move east over the region on
Wednesday. Highs will warm into the middle 70s to the lower 80s
as a warmer air mass advects into the area. Most of the day on
Wednesday should remain dry as a cap will be in place as the
ridge is over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Wednesday evening and night the upper level ridge will move off
to the east as an upper level trough moves east across the
central and northern Plains. The cap will start to decrease
late Wednesday evening and night and storms are expected to
develop across portions of the area. Deep layer shear will
increase with the approach of the trough and a few strong storms
with hail will be possible Wednesday night but overall the
better chances should remain west and northwest of the area
Wednesday evening and night.

The trough will continue to move east across the area on
Thursday. Instability and deep layer shear will support a risk
for a few strong storms with hail and gusty winds the main
risk on Thursday. Another upper level trough will move through
the region bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances
to the region Thursday night into Friday. Not expecting
widespread flooding at this time but with the multiple rounds of
rain there could be a risk for some localized minor flooding
late this week.

Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s Wednesday through
Friday. An upper level ridge and a warmer air mass will move
over the area this weekend into early next week with highs in
the 80s returning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Quite a bit of variability and uncertainty in potential
conditions through the afternoon...satellite shows inconsistent
cloud fields across Missouri, with some sporadic deeper
convective clouds dropping very isolated pockets of short-lived
heavy rain. SGF seems to be the most likely TAF site to see more
of these heavy rain pockets causing reduced visibilities, but
BBG isn`t out of the question either; the short lived conditions
suggest TEMPO rather than a prevailing condition, but
amendments will be made as needed, if rain persists over these
TAF sites longer than expected/doesn`t continue moving eastward
as anticipated. Confidence is high in isolated modes, but low in
precise location for those afternoon showers.

Relatedly, flight categories are really bouncing around, and it
will unfortunately seems like a TAF-chasing afternoon. The AWC
website shows most of SW MO is likely at least MVFR, but obs are
not consistently reflecting this; the peeks of sun
transitioning quickly to heavy rain is changing localized
conditions faster than we can keep up. It`s good to consider
this especially for VFR pilots- there may only be small breaks
with VFR conditions at airports in the region. Winds are
northwesterly and fairly light (<10kts) and expected to remain
that way into the evening.

Later this afternoon, cloud bases should rise enough for a
period of VFR conditions before lowering again overnight. Light
winds will calm even further as well, and with high RH and
light winds, fog seems imminent. TEMPO group was introduced for
moderate to high confidence (forecaster gut feeling of 70-90%
based on pattern recognition) in conditions deteriorating
overnight as fog develops, but confidence in details regarding
timing and extent of deterioration isn`t quite as high.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Camden