906
FXUS62 KFFC 051850
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

At a glance:

    - More widespread chances for thunderstorms this evening and
    overnight

    - Unseasonable heat returns

In general, little meaningful changes to presiding flow pattern. The
western fringes of a surface high continue to overspread the
Southeast, with a series of shortwaves traversing the mid-levels
that will serve as the main source of forcing for any convective
activity. Showers and thunderstorms persisted overnight and well
into the morning for areas along and east of the Metro; subsequent
development this afternoon may be delayed and less widespread
between Atlanta and Athens. That said, cells that do form will be
capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall as in
previous afternoons.

The most active window for showers and thunderstorms is likely to be
after dark tonight for much of north and north central Georgia.
HiRes guidance suggests that a wave of weakly-organized convection
will breach the AL/GA border after midnight and continue its path
eastward across the Metro through daybreak. Bulk shear remains
unimpressive (<20kt) so not expecting much more than embedded sub-
severe thunderstorms within the broader complex of showers.

Monday looks to be a near rinse and repeat of today; isolated
thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing when the sun rises north of I-
20, giving way to more widely scattered activity during the
afternoon.

Highs will quite warm (unseasonably so by up to 5-7 degrees) both
today and Monday, topping out in the 80s to near-90 for all but the
terrain of northeast Georgia, which will remain in the 70s. A slight
gradient in temperature is possible tomorrow depending on coverage
and duration of overnight precipitation, which would see northern
Georgia just a few degrees "cooler" than today, in the upper-70s to
lower-80s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

The extended forecast remains mostly on track, with only minor
changes made. The southward movement of the cold front is trending
slightly faster, with a greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms forecast on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a
shortwave disturbance overruns the front. The previous discussion
follows...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Shortwave ridging aloft will build across the region at the onset of
the forecast period beginning Tuesday, leading to a drier and hotter
midweek time frame. PoPs won`t be shut off entirely but instead
relegated mainly to far north Georgia Tuesday and Wednesday
in the form of isolated to widely scattered convection. Tuesday and
Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week with highs ranging
mainly from the upper 80s to low 90s, some 8-12 degrees above
normal, though record highs are unlikely to be threatened.

The ridge will flatten by Wednesday night into Thursday while at
the surface a cold front will make subtle southward progress toward
the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As convection initiates near the front
on Wednesday, model guidance continues to indicate the potential for
convective complex(es) to propagate east-southeastward Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. There is thus the potential for at
least peripheral to perhaps more direct MCS impacts to parts of
north Georgia during this time frame, and the possibility for severe
thunderstorms would also concomitantly increase.

The cold front will make more substantial southward progress across
the Tennessee Valley on Thursday with PoPs remaining elevated in
advance of the front. The front then gets a shove into and
across our area Thursday night into Friday, with elevated PoPs
shifting southward across the area in advance of the front on
Friday. The associated severe potential will need to be monitored
Thursday and Friday as well as 0-6 km bulk shear of 50+ kts would
support a damaging wind threat, and supportive lapse rates could
also lead to a hail threat.

A much cooler and drier airmass will establish itself in the wake
of the front by the weekend with below normal temperatures likely
to make a return.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SCT MVFR cigs in areas with more dense cu, otherwise primarily VFR
conds to continue thru the aftn. Low-end chc for isold TSRA
impacts at northern TAF sites from 18-23Z. Expect another wave of
prevailing -SHRA from 09-15/16Z, with window from potential TSRA
from 09-13Z. MVFR vsbys may accompany heaviest rainfall. Cannot
rule out pds of low-MVFR to IFR cigs if overnight pcpn is
weaker/lower coverage... but low confidence. Winds will remain SSW
at 5-8kts during the day, shifting to the SE/light and VRB at
times after 00Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  84  63  86 /  30  70  50  20
Atlanta         66  85  66  86 /  40  70  60  20
Blairsville     60  78  59  80 /  40  70  70  40
Cartersville    63  85  63  86 /  50  60  50  30
Columbus        67  89  67  90 /  30  40  30  10
Gainesville     64  83  65  84 /  30  70  60  30
Macon           66  87  65  89 /  10  60  50  10
Rome            64  85  64  86 /  60  60  50  40
Peachtree City  65  86  65  87 /  40  60  50  20
Vidalia         67  88  67  90 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....RW/King
AVIATION...96