Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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470
FXUS62 KFFC 220748
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
348 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018


.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Upper low has moved onshore and is currently across SE AL. Regional
radar shows an area of nearly stationary precipitation that
stretches to offshore the Florida panhandle. This low
pressure system will shift north this morning, then northeast this
afternoon as an open wave. Even as a weakening system, the mid level
upper low will provide enough support for numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms today.

Tropical airmass remains in place across the CWFA, with no change in
airmass anticipated through the remainder of the short term period.
PWAT values are slightly higher today across the area than
yesterday. Coverage of convection should be greater, especially with
the mid level support. Strong, gusty thunderstorms will be possible
today. Even the sub-severe thunderstorms will be capable of downing
small, sick or shallow rooted trees since the soils are very wet
for this time of year. An isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of
the question, with damaging wind gusts being the primary severe
thunderstorm hazard. All storms will have the potential to produce
locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Coverage of storms should be greatest during the daytime, with
heating. However, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue possible during the overnight hours. Models are hinting at
the best coverage of storms across the south tomorrow, closest to
another mid level low center/shear axis.

NListemaa


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Still no drying period in site for the local area through the
extended. Beginning the period at 00z Thursday...evidence of the
short term`s weak mid level low across the state is beginning to
become very diffuse though there is still clear evidence of some
enhanced mid level moisture across the area. This area of enhanced
moisture will become trapped under a mid/upper level ridge that
encompasses much of the eastern US from the Plains to the OH Valley.
This may allow for some lingering showers to survive into at least
part of Wednesday night. This enhanced area of moisture will linger
through the day Thursday and provide a focus for convection by the
afternoon as parcels become more buoyant in conjunction with daytime
heating. Similar to Wednesday night...isolated showers may continue
into the overnight on Thursday into early Friday.

By Friday...things begin to become slightly more interesting. The
aforementioned area of enhanced mid level moisture may become pushed
northward slightly into north Georgia as a deep push of tropical
moisture enters the Gulf from the Caribbean. This will continue the
chance for mainly diurnally driven convection across the area but
especially north Georgia. The wave of deep tropical moisture from
the Caribbean is still expected to take on some type of circulation
tho the amount of organization and strength is not quite clear yet.
Per latest forecast from NHC...this wave/mid level perturbation has
a 40 percent chance of developing some degree of subtropical or
tropical characteristics. Although it is often difficult to not
focus primary attention on whether or not this wave will become a
named storm...the main focus should be on the potential threat for
additional [heavy] rainfall amidst an already damp environment.
Given that thus far the consensus is for this feature to remain
stationary near the Gulf Coast...this creates an endless open road
for waves of deep tropical moisture to enter Georgia through at
least the weekend. Should trends continue such as they have the
previous few days...flooding concerns will undoubtedly increase.

This feature looks to linger across the region through the remainder
of the long term and even outside of the long term through the
middle of next week.

Kovacik

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
A brief period of IFR clouds are possible towards 12Z, but should
break with mixing. Convective coverage will be greater today.
Realistically, after heating starts, shra could develop at any
time and linger through the day. Have tried to time the greatest
coverage of shra for the day, with the potential for thunder.
Models are once again progging IFR cigs overnight and a wind shift
to the SW.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  67  82  67 /  60  60  50  20
Atlanta         79  68  81  69 /  60  60  50  20
Blairsville     76  62  80  61 /  60  60  50  20
Cartersville    80  67  83  66 /  60  50  50  20
Columbus        82  69  83  69 /  70  60  60  40
Gainesville     78  66  81  67 /  60  60  50  20
Macon           82  68  83  69 /  70  60  60  30
Rome            81  66  85  66 /  60  50  40  20
Peachtree City  80  67  81  67 /  70  60  60  20
Vidalia         83  69  85  69 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Kovacik
AVIATION...NListemaa



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