Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 231800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.NEAR TERM...Today and tonight...Mid and high clouds spilling
over the upper ridge to the west will move over the area tonight
and Saturday. Surface high will be over the area tonight providing
light winds with temperatures not as cold as last night. Lows
tonight will be in the low/mid 40s inland and upper 40s coast.
Surface ridge will shift east into the Atlantic on Saturday which
will shift winds to the sw. Winds will become breezy by Saturday
afternoon as pressure gradient tightens. Temperatures will warm
into the upper 70s to lower 80s inland with mid 70s at the coast
where an afternoon seabreeze will form.

SHORT TERM (Saturday night thru Monday night)...
Saturday night...High pressure will have shifted about 450 east
of east- central florida which will allow a southwest flow at
about 5 to 7 knots inland, and 7 to 9 knots over area beaches.
There will be some good moisture advection during the night where
dewpoints rise 10 degrees during the nocturnal hours with low
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. At the same time, a surface
low will track from Middle TN to South Carolina overnight where it
will phase with the southern extention of a trof extending down
from SE Canada. The phased surface trof will move southward into
east central Georgia as a backdoor front that will allow some
isold precipitation to move south of the Altamaha by daybreak.

Sunday and Sunday night...The backdoor front / wedge will move
through SE GA between mid morning and early afternoon. Then
through NE FL between mid afternoon and during the evening hours.
This will bring an increase for rain chances mainly north of I-10
on Sunday, with very low chance for thunder across southeast
Georgia due to a weak shortwave progged to move through the mean
flow north of the region. As the attendant front drops southward
Sunday night scattered shower activity will occur south of I-10 to
as far south to from Palm Coast to Gainesville.  Highs Sunday
will be in the 70s across Southeast Georgia and across upper
70s to lower 80s across NE Florida. Lows Sunday night will be the
upper 40s to lower 50s SE GA and mid to upper 50s NE FL.

Monday and Monday night...By Monday morning, a coastal trof will
set up with NNE flow, much cooler temperatures, chances for isold
to scattered showers mainly east of the St. Johns River in FL and
east of I-95 in Georgia and breezy conditions near the coast.  Coastal
trof gradually pushes offshore south and east into the adjacent
western Atlantic waters Monday night, with coastal showers gradually
waning and tapering from the evening into the overnight hours. Highs
on Monday are forecast to be in the mid / upper 50s to to mid 60s
across SE GA and 65 to 70 across northeast FL and 70 to 75 south
of SR16. Lows will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Friday)...
Area of high pressure will sprawl across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico with eastern perphiphery over our region by Tuesday and
over the region on Wednesday and pushes over the Bahamas Thursday
as a cold front moves into the Southest U.S. and then over our
region on Friday.  As a result, our temps will modify through the
entire week with a warming trend through much of the workweek.
Upper level flow is northwesterly on Tueday and southwesterly
late Wednesday into late Thursday. By Thursday high temperatures
will be pushing into the mid to upper 80s. Another cold front will
approach the region at the end of next week with a potential for
isolated to scattered showers.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue into Saturday with some
increase in mid and high clouds. Winds will be light through
tonight...then increasing from the sw to 15-20 knots Saturday


.MARINE...Winds and seas will be light tonight before increasing
from the ssw on Saturday. SCEC headline may be needed for offshore
zones Saturday night as winds increase to 15-20kt range. Winds
will shift to the ne late Sunday as a backdoor cold front moves
south across the waters. Advisory conditions will be likely Sunday
night through the middle of next week. Seas will remain elevated
longer than winds as swells increase from deepening low pressure
off the east coast.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Saturday.


AMG  45  77  58  74 /   0   0  20  60
SSI  50  71  59  70 /   0   0  10  50
JAX  46  79  56  78 /   0   0   0  40
SGJ  46  75  56  78 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  43  78  53  81 /   0   0   0  20
OCF  43  78  52  82 /   0   0   0  10




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