867
FXUS65 KABQ 200911
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
311 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Unseasonal warmth will combine with dry and breezy to windy
conditions today. This will create high fire danger across portions
of western and central New Mexico in the afternoon. Virga showers
will create erratic gusty winds across portions of northern and
western New Mexico. A cold front will bring a modest cooldown on
Tuesday alongside breezy to locally windy west winds. Winds relax
slightly on Wednesday and temperatures begin rebounding. The warm,
dry, and breezy trend then continues through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Hazy skies are expected early this morning as smoke from the Wildcat
Fire in AZ spreads over the area. However, any smoke should clear
out this afternoon as winds increase.

It continues to look like a Pacific low off the coast of SoCal will
weaken and rapidly cross NM this afternoon and evening while a
northern stream trough dives southeastward from the PacNW. The
combination of these systems will make for busy weather day (and
night) across NM. First, winds are expected to increase this
afternoon as a 120kt upper level jet moves over the area in advance
of the (then) Pacific trough.  A deepening lee side surface low will
aid in this endeavor, though the strongest winds this afternoon are
expected to be across western NM where gusts near 50 mph are likely.
A batch of mid level moisture will also advect into western NM ahead
of this trough, increasing cloud cover throughout the afternoon.
But, it really starts to get interesting late this afternoon and
evening. Models are indicating that virga and/or light rain showers
across eastern AZ will result in a meso-high/cold pool which will
end up enhancing the Pacific front that will push from west to east
across NM. Thus, some of the strongest winds speeds of the day will
actually occur late this afternoon and this evening along and behind
the cold front/outflow boundary across western NM. Lift from the
trough and the front combined with the aforementioned mid level
moisture and strong inverted-V profiles may result in virga and/or
light rain showers of our own with enhanced gusty and erratic winds.
It will not be out of the question for some of these (mostly) dry
microbursts to have wind gusts near 60 mph.

The front/boundary will continue to push eastward this evening,
reaching the Rio Grande Valley between 6p-9p MDT. There will be an
increase in wind speed as the front passes and if any sprinkles
persist, winds will be enhanced. Across the Northern Mountains,
light rain and even some snow above 11kft is likely. A thunderstorm
or two will be possible as well. The front will continue to press
eastward, clearing the eastern plains by midnight or 1am.

On Tuesday, temperatures areawide will be around 5 degrees cooler
than today. Breezy to windy conditions will persist as the northern
stream trough crosses Colorado and another surface low deepens
across NE NM.  The strongest winds on Tuesday should be across
northeast NM with gusts between 35 and 40 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

The H5 pressure gradient loosens on Tuesday night into Wednesday as
a baggy trough sweeps across SoCal and the northern Baja. A shallow
backdoor cold front will descend into the eastern plains Tuesday
night, surging south and westward through Wednesday morning. This
will allow for a few more degrees of cooling to afternoon highs
across eastern NM, while areas across the central mts and westward
see high temperatures rebound. Winds will relax a skosh but will
remain breezy across the highlands of the central mts in the
afternoon. A trio of upper lows waltzing across the northern CONUS
and CAN will keep the low amplitude wave pattern going across the
southern CONUS. A regime of quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail
Thursday through Saturday amongst persisting lee-side sfc
troughing. This will keep breezy west to southwest winds in the
forecast for most areas through the end of the week. Moderated
temperatures can be expected alongside dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. West to
southwest winds will gradually in speed through the afternoon
hours on Monday. Strongest winds are expected across western NM
where gusts may near 45kt, including at KGUP. A batch of mid level
moisture will also increase cloud cover across western NM during
the afternoon hours. A Pacific cold front/cold pool outflow
boundary will race from west to east during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Virga and/or light rain along the boundary will be
possible across northwest and north central NM which will enhance
the potential for gusty and erratic winds, potentially near 50kt.
The boundary will push through ABQ/AEG/SAF between 01 and 03Z Tue
before continuing across eastern NM. An Airport Weather Warning
will likely be needed for the ABQ Sunport during the late
afternoon and evening hours, particular when the boundary pushes
through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NM TODAY...

Hot, dry and unstable conditions will persist through the end of the
week. Windy conditions across western and portions of central NM
today combined with single digit or near single digit RH and high
Haines will result in critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon and evening. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the
area. Complicating matters will be virga and/or light rain resulting
in (mostly) dry microbursts resulting in potentially stronger and
erratic wind gusts late this afternoon and evening. Hot, dry,
unstable and windy conditions will also be present across much of
eastern NM, but ongoing greenup will mitigate the critical fire
weather threat. Breezy to windy conditions will return on Tuesday,
but the strongest winds are expected across eastern NM, so like
today, will not issue a Red Flag Warning due to greenup. A cold
front will press through the area Tuesday night. Temperatures will
be a few degrees colder across the east on Wednesday, but the bigger
story will be that less wind will be in store for Wednesday
afternoon.  Unfortunately, breezy to windy conditions will return
for Thursday through the weekend resulting in near-critical to
critical conditions across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  44  74  39 /  10  20   0   0
Dulce...........................  75  34  69  31 /  10  30   5   0
Cuba............................  75  39  71  37 /   5  20   0   0
Gallup..........................  76  38  74  31 /  10  10   0   0
El Morro........................  72  38  71  36 /   5  10   0   0
Grants..........................  78  39  74  32 /   5  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  77  40  74  37 /  10   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  82  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  77  43  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  81  37  78  33 /   5   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  85  49  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  69  33  62  31 /  10  40  10   0
Los Alamos......................  74  46  70  45 /   5  20   0   0
Pecos...........................  78  43  72  41 /   0  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  71  39  63  35 /   0  30   0   0
Red River.......................  66  33  59  31 /   0  40   5   0
Angel Fire......................  70  34  62  29 /   0  40   0   0
Taos............................  76  38  70  34 /   0  20   0   0
Mora............................  75  42  69  37 /   0  10   0   0
Espanola........................  82  47  77  43 /   0  20   0   0
Santa Fe........................  77  45  72  45 /   5  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  81  46  76  43 /   5  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  83  52  79  51 /   5  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  85  53  80  49 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  50  82  48 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  51  81  49 /   0  10   0   0
Belen...........................  89  51  84  46 /   0   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  85  51  81  48 /   5  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  87  49  83  46 /   0   5   0   0
Corrales........................  86  51  81  48 /   5  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  88  50  83  46 /   0   5   0   0
Placitas........................  82  50  77  48 /   5  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  84  51  80  48 /   5  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  92  54  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  47  72  45 /   5  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  80  48  75  45 /   0   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  79  46  74  42 /   0   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  45  77  38 /   0   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  78  44  72  41 /   0   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  81  47  76  44 /   0   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  82  46  76  43 /   0   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  87  55  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  81  52  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  81  45  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  85  45  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  85  47  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  80  46  74  39 /   0   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  88  53  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  84  50  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  91  56  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  88  54  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  93  56  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  95  57  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  96  56  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  93  57  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 100  61  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  91  56  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  89  56  83  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ101-105-106-109-124.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ201-202-205-206.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...34