808
FXUS65 KABQ 171722 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1122 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

Patchy fog in valleys and other low-lying areas early this morning
will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Temperatures rise to near
average today, then climb to the highest values of the season thus
far this weekend. Southwest to west winds also trend stronger today
through Monday afternoon, but are expected to remain below high wind
levels. A dry Pacific front brings a modest cooldown Tuesday,
keeping temps near seasonal averages through the end of the
workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

The tale of two low pressure systems continues to influence sensible
weather as the disturbances push east. Unable to phase into each
other, the more saturated northern system will eject into the Great
Plains today, leaving its drier counterpart behind. The remains of
their affair will bring much quieter weather in its aftermath as the
southern system swings into West Texas, allowing a tilted ridge to
form in its wake. Patchy fog may develop in the central valleys and
across some of the highlands of the central mts thanks to the
previous day`s rains. The cattywampus ridge scoots in on NM, raising
pressure heights and leading to a rapid warmup areawide. Daytime
highs today will see an increase of around 10F to 18F compared to
Thursday`s readings, bringing all locales near to above normal.
Recycled moisture may lead to a few crops of towering cu, with the
best chance for convection favoring the south central mts. Overnight
temps will follow suit, being generally a few to several degrees
warmer than Thursday night`s readings with clear conditions. The
tilted ridge straightens out on Saturday, its axis centering over
NM. Pressure heights rise another few decameters, allowing for
daytime highs to rise even further. This will allow the middle and
lower RGV to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, while the
southeastern plains (including KROW) flirt with the century mark.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

The subtropical jet will strengthen and lift into New Mexico on
Sunday, resulting in an uptick of wind speeds. Clear skies and
mixing up to 15kft will surely bring some stronger gusts down the
the sfc during the afternoon hours Sunday and moreso Monday when
gusts to 50 mph are possible in the typical windy areas just east of
the central mtn chain. Temperatures will be similar Sunday and
Monday as well, ranging from near average across the west to 10
degrees above average in the east. There`s a >70% chance that
Roswell will hit at least 100 degrees both Sunday and Monday where
moderate heat risk is expected. The good news is that efficient
radiational cooling overnight will help temps drop 30-40 degrees
each night, offering some relief from the heat. A dry cold front
will pass over the area Monday night into Tuesday, dropping temps a
few degrees. Around 1/3 of global models, mostly Canadian ensemble
members, have a deeper and slower moving trough that would push the
cold front through on Tuesday as opposed to Monday night.

Long-term model guidance is in excellent agreement that New Mexico
will be sandwiched in between the sub-tropical and polar jets mid-
next week, preventing widespread windy conditions from developing.
With near average 500mb heights, temps will be hovering right around
seasonal averages. Apart from the localized fire weather concerns,
its looking like beautiful late Spring weather will prevail Tuesday
through at least Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Gusty west-northwest winds will prevail this afternoon
across central and western NM, with occasional gusts to between
20-30kts. A few late day buildups may bring strong/erratic wind
gusts near KLVS, KROW and possibly KTCC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

Light winds will help to mitigate critical fire weather conditions
Friday and Saturday as a ridge of high pressure takes hold. The
ridge will usher in markedly drier air which will strengthen its
grasp on northern and central New Mexico by Sunday. Widespread low
double digit and single digit relative humidity will be commonplace
on Sunday afternoon alongside some of the season`s hottest
temperatures. West to southwest winds will also strengthen, bringing
critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern New Mexico.
Recent rains, however, will help to limit fire danger by greening up
fuels. Even drier air will take hold on Monday and the ridge will
breakdown completely, bringing more widespread gusty winds. With
much of the central mountains and westward not receiving much in the
way of wetting rainfall, concerns for critical fire weather
conditions will arise Monday. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions
prevail Tuesday and Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions may
return to parts of the highlands Thursday as gusty southwest winds
mix with single digit relative humidity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  82  47  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  77  37  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  75  43  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  81  40  81  36 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  74  43  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  78  41  83  38 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  76  44  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  78  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  74  48  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  83  39  85  38 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  86  54  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  70  39  73  39 /   5   0   5  10
Los Alamos......................  73  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  74  46  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  69  42  73  44 /   5   5   5   5
Red River.......................  65  37  69  37 /   5  10  10  10
Angel Fire......................  67  33  72  33 /   0   0   5   5
Taos............................  74  39  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  71  42  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  80  47  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  74  50  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  78  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  50  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  54  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  85  52  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  84  52  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  84  50  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  84  52  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  84  52  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  79  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  83  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  87  56  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  52  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  77  51  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  76  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  41  83  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  73  46  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  76  49  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  76  48  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  80  55  86  57 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  74  51  80  53 /  10   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  74  47  76  47 /   5   0   5   5
Raton...........................  78  44  81  46 /   5  10   5   5
Springer........................  78  44  83  46 /   5   5   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  75  46  80  47 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  80  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  76  49  82  51 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  83  51  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  80  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  83  52  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  83  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  84  54  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  83  53  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  88  59  99  61 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  81  56  89  57 /  10   0   0   0
Elk.............................  79  53  87  55 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11