Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221933
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
233 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

Primary forecast focus is unseasonably warm and humid conditions
through the weekend.

Well, it`s 85 F with a 63 F dewpoint at the downtown KC airport
at 2 PM, which is just... fantastic. Unfortunately, conditions
like this can be expected for the remainder of the week, with
highs near 90 and max heat index values in the mid 90s on Saturday
and Sunday. With the first very warm and humid days of spring
ahead of us, it`s easy to be caught off guard while working or
playing outside. For some it can take a few days to get
acclimated, so take it easy, stay cool, and drink plenty of water
if you`re playing or working outside.

Through Wednesday, the 500mb ridge will continue to build east over
the Midwest, strengthening through the day. With the northward build
of a 500mb short wave into eastern Montana, a modest surface trough
will develop along the western high plains, with a ribbon of
moisture return from the Arklatex and Ozarks. In association, an
area of isentropic ascent will exist along the OK/AR and MO/KS
border, resulting in low shower and thunder chances through the
afternoon across southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

On Thursday, conditions similar to Wednesday will develop, but with
a stronger signal due to the continuing eastward build of the upper
ridge and eastward push of the surface trough into western Kansas.
Again, moisture will pool across western Missouri, with enough
support for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Friday, our upper ridge axis finally pushes east of Missouri with a
weak short wave trough moving along the NE/KS border, resulting in
low chances for scattered showers and thunder through the day and
persisting into Saturday as the open short wave takes it`s time
exiting the region through the early part of the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

VFR Conditions are expected to prevail through the period for all
sites. Winds will remain light, generally out of the south and
southeast. High clouds will continue to stream across the region
through the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Kurtz


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