Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241401
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1001 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will build in through early this
week with a return to more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday.
Rain chances will return with the next cold front Wednesday
into Thursday. Dry high pressure will build in behind the cold
front into Friday with a warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes from the ongoing forecast with this update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
* Frost potential exists for rural areas, dependent on wind speeds *

Mid-level ridging will build across the area today, bringing
subsidence and clear skies with it. Closer to the ground, surface
high pressure ridging down from south-central Canada will maintain
breezy north winds and a supply of unseasonably cold and dry air
through the day. Highs will struggle to breach 60F as full sunshine
fights sustained cold advection.

Tonight, the million dollar question is whether winds will go light
enough to permit frost formation. Moist soils, low dewpoints, and
clear skies support this notion, but the presence of a pressure
gradient over the region courtesy of strengthening surface high
pressure in southeast Canada may keep winds just high enough to
prevent much frost outside of sheltered locations. Nevertheless,
given how early it is in the growing season, I opted to include
Inland Pender, Bladen, and Robeson counties in a Frost Advisory to
highlight where enough potential exists to warrant precautionary
actions. This Advisory may need to be expanded into other largely
rural counties away from the coast, but the pressure gradient will
be a bit tighter the further south and east you go, so will defer to
the day shift to determine if an expansion is needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge of high pressure along the east coast will be slowly
squeezed out between lingering low pressure well offshore and
approaching trough shifting east from the central CONUS Mon
through Tues. Should maintain a slightly pinched gradient along
and off the coast with lighter winds inland. After a very cool
start to the day on Mon, temps will rebound into the 60s,
remaining below normal with plenty of sunshine.

Column remains dry for the most part, but should see an
increase in upper level moisture in the way of cirrus across the
area, as well as potential for low clouds or fog early Tues in
shallow onshore flow of moisture, mainly along the coast.
Cloud cover and winds, mainly along the coast, may be enough to
influence temps to keep them slightly less cold, and definitely
higher than the previous night. Overall, expect low temps in the
low to mid 40s most places, but traditionally cooler places
should drop into the 30s. May see some patchy frost in wind
sheltered areas.

Temps will warm close to normal, pushing 70 with some clouds
around. Upper trough will push a cold front toward the Carolinas
into Wed with increasing clouds Tues night ahead of it. Should
not see much in the way of pcp until Wed. Clouds and WAA will
keep overnight lows above normal Tues night, around 50 most
places.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deepening trough approaching from the west will push a cold
front into the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday before shifting
offshore. Best moisture return will come later on Wed when
winds come around to the SE to S. Models differ with developing
wave of low pressure along the front. GFS shows it moving up the
coast Wed eve, but ECMWF shows the low deepening as it moves up
the just off the coast Thurs eve. Expect potential for some
greater QPF depending on when this low tracks up the coast.

High pressure will build in behind this system as cold front
tracks off the coast late Thurs into Fri. The high remains south
of the area with decent westerly downslope flow developing into
the weekend with a warming trend taking place. Expect temps to
warm from the 60s on Thurs to well into the 70s over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period with gusty winds
remaining a concern through the daylight hours today beneath
clear skies. With dry air in place and winds not expected to go
light and variable at the terminals, fog is not expected
tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues from Sunday night through
Monday night. Vis/cig restrictions will be possible during
early mornings on Tuesday and Wednesday due to weak winds in
tandem with moist soils. Additional restrictions are likely for
Wednesday and Thursday as a frontal system slowly traverses the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Breezy north winds courtesy of high pressure building into the
region will subside somewhat today, with gusts dropping to
marginal SCA levels (25 kt) this afternoon and continuing
through tonight. Seas will remain elevated through the period
with an ESE 5-8 ft swell at 10 sec gradually losing its
dominance today as NErly 3-6 ft wind waves develop this morning
while ENErly 4-8 ft swells at 10-11 sec swells take over
tonight.

Monday through Thursday...
Small Craft Advisory will be ongoing. High pressure ridging
along the east coast will get squeezed out between deepening
trough approaching from the west and low pressure well offshore
Mon into Tues. Therefore, expect stiff northerly winds to
maintain seas above 6 ft through Mon night and could remain
above SCA thresholds, especially for outer waters from Cape Fear
northward, into Tues aftn.

Winds will veer and lighten up some as ridge shifts farther off
the coast and cold front approaches on Wed. Winds will shift
from E to SE Tues night into Wed and briefly pick up out of the
S Wed eve ahead of cold front. Winds will pick up out of the N
once again behind the cold front on Thurs. Could be back above
SCA thresholds Thurs.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ087-096-105.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RGZ/ABW


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