847
FXUS63 KJKL 100615 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
215 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some showers and perhaps a storm or two are possible, at times,
  from through early next week.

- A cold front passing early this morning will usher in cooler
  temperatures from Friday through the weekend, with warming then
  returning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024

Just a quick update to the forecast mainly to fine tune the low
PoPs into dawn as a boundary slowly slips south through eastern
Kentucky. Used radar and CAMs trends for the PoPs and thunder
chances with this update. Did also include the latest obs and
tendencies for the T/Td/Sky grids and tweaked the fog portion of
the forecast through dawn. These minor adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones
and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1022 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2024

Isolated showers are moving west to east along a front moving
slowly south late this evening. Added 15 PoPs for a good portion
of the overnight mainly for north and northeastern parts of the forecast
area. Otherwise, the forecast was left as is with most recent
hourly observations blended in to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 746 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2024

Minimal changes needed with the early evening update. Made minor
changes to PoPs based on latest NBM and CONShort trends, but
overall this only made minor edits to timing of precipitation
chances late tonight through mid-afternoon Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2024

Large scale trough over the Great Lakes continues to have smaller
shortwaves traveling west to east across the Upper Ohio Valley.
One such feature is interacting with a diffuse low pressure
center, stretching roughly from SW OH to central VA, to generate
some really light rain showers embedded within a larger scale
stratocumulus field. So far not seeing much get taller on
satellite imagery. The window for measurable rain chances still is
fairly narrow in space and time. Still looking at far eastern KY
and NE KY with the best chance to measure.

That shortwave passes east, along with the surface low later this
evening. Another quick-moving disturbance will pass through OH
toward daybreak Friday. Expect some low clouds to swipe across our
area, especially along and just ahead of the cold front that will
pull our temperatures to below normal. Once again, cannot rule out
an isolated light rain shower to form  By Friday afternoon, a bigger
shortwave will force that cold front through the area. Still not
sold on any high rain chances for the region, but if it does fall,
not looking at high rainfall totals. Peak rainfall totals likely
will stay under a quarter inch for most locations.

Friday night, brief shortwave ridging will filter in behind those
systems, allowing for one 12 hour period with very low pops.
Clearing skies and relatively light winds will allow temperatures to
fall into the 40s, likely with some valley fog by daybreak.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 605 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2024

The models are in generally good agreement with the long wave
pattern through the majority of the period, although detail
differences concerning the smaller scale features decrease the
forecast confidence by the middle of next week. A short wave
trough will shift from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region to New
England, cutting off as it treks east through the weekend. An
accompanying surface cold front will push southeast, reinforcing
cooler across the Commonwealth into Sunday morning, as well as
bringing an uptick in rain chances (30-60%) during the day on
Saturday. The higher rain chances will be confined more towards
Ohio and West Virginia. 500 mb heights will recover over the Ohio
and Tennessee valleys Saturday night through Monday morning, with
dry weather expected. Meanwhile, another cutoff low will move
from the southern Plains/middle Mississippi Valley region through
the Ohio/Tennessee valleys through mid-week, bringing another
period of unsettled weather to eastern Kentucky from Monday
through Wednesday.

Rain chances could linger on Thursday as well, depending on how
quickly another progressive short wave trough moves in from the
southwest. The ECMWF is slower, and shows sharper short wave
ridging taking hold, while the GFS is weaker and exits the ridge
faster. This will be followed by an inbound short wave trough
stemming from a long wave trough moving over the central CONUS.
Given that the ensembles have generally trended lower with rain
chances for Thursday, have leaned that way as well, and undercut
the blended PoPs a bit. For temperatures, below normal readings
will be in place for this weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s, and lows in the 40s. Temperatures will then trend warmer
next week, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s by Thursday,
and lows modifying through the 50s to around 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024

A cold front will approach from the northwest and move into the
area Friday morning. This passage will bring MVFR CIGs and some
isolated to scattered shower activity through 18Z Friday. CIGs
then improve by mid-afternoon Friday as the system begins to
depart to the east. Light winds this morning will become
northwesterly and increases to around 10 kts during the day,
Friday, as the front settles through the region.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHARP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF