894
FXUS63 KJKL 121830
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
230 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will range from near to slightly above normal
  through next week.

- Chances for showers and storms persist through the weekend and
  into next week, mainly during each afternoon and evening hours.
  These chances peak Sunday and again late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025

Current surface analysis across the CONUS is quite active, with a
surface perturbation moving across its northern half. The main
synoptic feature is a surface low tracking across the Great Lakes
region. Currently, its positioned over Michigan`s Upper
Peninsula. The warm front extends west to east from the lows
center, across Canada, and into New England. The corresponding
cold front stretches southwestward from the lows center, reaching
down to the southern Central Plains. Locally, eastern Kentucky is
firmly within the warm sector regime, behind the warm front but
ahead of the approaching cold front. This setup will lead to
warmer temperatures as southwesterly flow advects warmer
temperatures and higher dew points into the region. This is
already reflected in current temperatures, which have climbed into
the mid to upper 80s.

Through the remainder of the day, temperatures will continue to
climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, throughout the
afternoon, there will be increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these have already started to develop but are
short-lived. The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms today, as this afternoons convection could bring an
isolated threat of a stronger storm. Any storms that do develop
could bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. However, since
shear values are nonexistent to negligible, widespread severe storms
are not expected. Showers and storms will dissipate toward the
overnight hours, leading to a mostly dry night with areas of fog and
overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Sunday will bring another day of highs in the mid to upper 80s, with
increasing threats for convection as the front finally moves into
the region. As with Saturday, strong storms are possible, but shear
continues to be lacking; therefore, significant severe weather is
not anticipated. Models indicate the front will stall out across the
area from northeast to southwest. As this occurs, PoP chances will
continue from Sunday afternoon through the overnight into Monday.
Sunday night will closely mirror Saturday night, with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

Overall, the period will be highlighted by rounds of showers and
storms, some of which could be severe. Highs will climb into the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows falling into the upper
60s to lower 70s, along with areas of fog.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025

Models are in relatively good agreement on a zonal mid-level jet
stream remaining well north of the area along the US/Canada border
through the period, with persistent weak mid-level troughing
remaining within a relatively weak flow regime aloft either just
upstream or over the area. A weak surface front will attempt to push
across the area Monday, but models are increasingly coming into
better agreement that this front will not completely clear the area
and in fact may stall across eastern Kentucky. This will keep mostly
diurnally-driven convection in the forecast for much of the long-
term period.

Highest PoPs will be Sunday ahead of the front under a weak warm-
advection regime, and then again Thursday as warm advection begins
to increase ahead of a stronger system that appears poised to arrive
toward next weekend (Days 8-10). Lowest PoPs appear to be Tuesday
into Wednesday, but there is an increasing trend in these PoPs from
the previous package.

Highs will generally reach the mid- to upper-80s most days, but may
reach the lower 90s Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday given height
rises, and especially if any drier air can result in less cloud
cover and precipitation. This may bring a subsequent increase in the
heat risk as forecast heat index values begin to approach 100
degrees in the warmest locations, especially Wednesday into
Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025

VFR conditions are largely prevailing across all TAF sites this
issuance; however scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed, all of which could bring a decrease in category to
terminals. Once showers and storms dissipate, terminals will all
return to VFR through the overnight. With moisture from Saturday`s
rainfall, areas of fog could develop and create lowered categories
at all sites from roughly 08Z through 12Z. A renewed threat for
showers and storms will develop after 12Z and persist through the
rest of the period. Lastly, winds will be light and variable
outside of any convection.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST