566
FXUS65 KPUB 090050
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
650 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and wetter weather appearing likely Thursday into the
weekend.

- Accumulating snow across the higher terrain is also appearing
likely, with the highest snowfall amounts and impacts expected
across the peaks.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire this evening as
winds start to ease and humidity levels gradually improve.
Incorporated lates obs and satellite data, as well as hi-res
HRRR and RUC guidance. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Overall, relatively quiet across southern this afternoon with partly
cloudy to mostly sunny conditions in place for most areas. West
northwest flow situated across the central mountains is assisting
with some expansive cloud cover this afternoon, though lacking
deeper moisture has limited any snow development. This will continue
to be the case for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening,
especially as the upper trough sags to the south and flow becomes
more baggy. Surface trough situated across southeast plains is
supporting some spotty stronger winds/gusts this afternoon and along
with some lower RH values, am still seeing at least spotty critical
fire weather conditions. Given these conditions in place and the
higher likelihood for them to continue over the next couple of
hours, have opted to leave the Red Flag Warning in effect.

As the upper trough sags south later this evening into tonight, will
see a cold front move south through much of the Colorado. Initially,
no real impacts look to occur. However, increases in moisture along
veering flow will support a return to moist/upslope flow and
increases in isentropic ascent will support expanding cloud cover
and increases in precip. Precip chances will really increase
Thursday morning into the afternoon time frame and initially for
areas over and near the mountains. During the day on Thursday, snow
will be likely across the mountains and with rain expected over the
lower elevations. Amounts and impacts from the snow across the
mountains do look to be low through Thursday afternoon, and have not
issued any winter headlines at this time. With some weak instability
expected to be in place, can`t rule out some rumbles of thunder over
the higher terrain. By late in the period, will begin to see the
precip really blossom, as the upper trough/low continues to draw
near. In this cloud cover and precip, temps are expected to be well
below average on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Recent trends with guidance today is suggesting that portions of
south central Colorado, especially over and near the higher terrain,
could see a period of steady light to at time moderate precip from
Thursday night into Friday. With the upper low to the west, will see
deep southerly flow situated across southern Colorado. Increases in
large scale ascent, deep moist/upslope flow, and continued
isentropic ascent look to really focus precip development into our
area during this time. Have increased pops, qpf, and snow to account
for these trends. Rainfall rates don`t look to be overly concerning
at this time given lower instability, even with any thunderstorm
development. Most locations across south central Colorado will
likely see this rain result in amounts of one half inch to around an
inch. For the higher terrain, highest snowfall amounts look to be
primarily for the higher peaks of the mountains and with this
expectation, think impacts will be low. That being said, am getting
a little concerned that snow levels could lower more than currently
forecast and if so, amounts and impacts could be higher. This will
definitely need to be monitored, along with the need for winter
headlines.

Should see a trend for additional precip development to focus more
across the higher terrain, especially the Continental Divide, later
Friday into Friday night. This will be in response to this upper low
moving more to the south. For the remainder of the weekend into
early next week, should see this upper low slowly shift to the east
with precip chances likely returning. Coverage of precip looks to be
lower, and once again, likely focused over the higher terrain. The
risk of any strong to severe storms does look to be low at this
time, however, increases in moisture and instability could support a
higher risk on Saturday, especially as this system moves through. A
trend towards more normal temps is expected into early next week,
along with periodic precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

KALS: Mostly VFR through 24 hours. Winds will pick up by 12Z
tomorrow, remaining southeasterly through the end of the period
with mid to low-level clouds, bordering on MVFR. Showers will
move in from the adjacent higher terrain tomorrow afternoon, and
cloud ceilings will fall as showers approach the terminal.

KCOS: Winds will remain northwesterly for a few hours before
turning more northerly overnight. Clouds will increase and
ceilings will lower to near-MVFR by 12Z. Showers are expected
in the area tomorrow after 16Z or so, and will lower conditions
to MVFR. Rain showers will be possible at the terminal and could
lower visibility.

KPUB: East-northeasterly winds overnight will turn more
northerly prior to 12Z. Clouds will remain VFR but will increase
in coverage through around 16Z. Showers are expected in the area
tomorrow and may drift close to the terminal. Confidence in
precipitation directly overhead is still too low to include in
the 00Z TAFs, but clouds will sink to MVFR heights tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...EHR/RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO