Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 290646
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front will move off the Carolina coast this
morning, while low pressure rapidly strengthens well off the middle
Atlantic coast. High pressure will build over and then offshore of
the Southeast through Saturday. A cold front will approach the
region on Tuesday and move across the area on Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 925 PM Thursday...

A secondary boundary, a nrn stream cold front that has become more
of a dryline with milder and markedly drier to its west, was
analyzed at 01Z from near FVX in cntl VA sswwd to TQV and MEB in
cntl NC. This boundary will move ewd with the passage of a mid/upr-
level trough axis and following subsidence tonight. Before it does
so, however, a lingering axis of surface dewpoints in the 40s F
ahead of it, combined with clear; mainly calm; and wet ground/soil,
will support the development/maintenance of radiation fog over the
ern half of cntl NC early tonight. This fog will persist longest and
become locally dense along and east of I-95 through ~05-06Z, before
the boundary and following drier air advance ewd. Patchy frost will
then be possible especially over the rural NC Piedmont Fri morning,
as the incoming continental airmass radiationally cools and supports
low temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

Friday and Friday night: In the wake of the exiting upper level
trough, heights aloft will steadily increase across the region as a
broad upper level ridge over the Central US builds eastward. At the
surface, a strong pressure gradient will exist between a deepening
area of low pressure tracking north off the New England coast and
high pressure building east into the Deep South will yield breezy
conditions. Expect frequent W-NWLY gusts of 20-30 mph, with
occasional gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph, highest across northern
portions of the piedmont and coastal plain counties. The brisk NW
flow will also result in favorable downslope drying/mixing out of
dewpoints and low-level warming. Afternoon RH values are expected to
fall 25 to 35%, potentially as low as 20-25% across the NW Piedmont.
Fuels will likely be wet enough to avoid elevated fire weather
conditions.

Underneath a scattered to occasionally broken diurnal cu field,
highs ranging from mid 60s NE to lower 70s south.
Lows Friday night 40-45.

Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern over the CONUS
will undergo modest amplification over the weekend with substantial
height rises noted over the SE US as the upper ridge continues to
build east. Low-level SWLY flow around the surface high that will
settle over the western Atlantic will yield a strong warmup through
the weekend. After highs in the mid to upper 70s, Sunday highs will
average 12 to 15 degrees above normal as temperatures top out in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mostly dry and sunny conditions will prevail with intervals of mid
and high clouds streaming across the area through much of the
weekend. One possible exception could be late Sunday and into Sunday
night as a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic states could sag
far enough south to support some isolated showers across the far
northern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Low pressure will be over the central Plains Sunday morning with a
front extending to the east across Kentucky and Virginia. These
states should have the primary chance for showers Sunday and Monday,
but a stray shower could drift south of the VA/NC border through
that time period. Have a slight chance of showers north of US-64
Monday night, but the more organized chance of showers finally
arrives from the northwest Tuesday afternoon as the low moves over
the eastern Great Lakes. The highest chance for showers should occur
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the cold front sweeps across
central North Carolina. The timing of the frontal passage should
limit the potential for any severe weather, although there will be
enough instability for a chance of thunderstorms overnight. The area
will dry out from west to east on Wednesday, with high pressure
building in behind the departing front Thursday.

Gusty winds are expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday because of
the pressure gradient across the state. Each day will have the
potential for wind gusts between 20-30 mph. Wind out of the
southwest Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will allow for above normal
highs ahead of the cold front. Wednesday will be a transitional day
with the frontal passage before highs drop below normal on Thursday.
After low temperatures in the 50s and 60s Sunday night through
Tuesday night, lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: A secondary cold front is shifting east across
the Coastal Plain early this morning. A cooler and drier airmass is
building into the area with dew points falling into the 20s across
the Piedmont. Areas of fog that developed late Thursday evening
across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain have begun to mix out and dry
out as drier air moves into the region.

After any residual fog dissipates by 08Z, clear skies and VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period. While a light
northwest wind at 6 kts or less is expected through morning, a
strong low-level jet will move over the area promoting the potential
for LLWS at all terminals. Doppler radar and tall tower data in
Clayton early this morning note northwest winds in excess 35-40kts
at 1-2kft this morning. The threat for LLWS will alleviate just
after daybreak as westerly surface winds at 10-15 kts with gusts of
20-25kts develop and continue into this afternoon. Winds will relax
during the late afternoon and evening with a light west wind at 6kts
or less tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions and mainly fair weather should prevail
through Monday. Gusty southwesterly winds of 20-25 kts are expected
on Saturday afternoon and perhaps up to 20 kts on Sunday afternoon.
A cold front will approach the area on Tuesday bringing a threat of
adverse aviation conditions with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
across the north late Monday and areawide on Tuesday. -Blaes
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Blaes


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