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000
FXUS63 KDVN 182006
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
306 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and isolated thunderstorms will exit the area late this
  afternoon into this evening.

- A frost advisory has been issued for parts of eastern Iowa
  from 1 AM to 8 AM on Friday as temperatures drop into the
  lower to mid 30s across the area.

- There will be several chilly nights through the weekend period
  with the potential need for additoinal frost/freeze
  advisories or warnings through the weekend.

- Another storm system is forecast to move across the area
  Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are slowly lifting
northeastward across the southern half of eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois this afternoon. There are thunderstorms
occurring south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line. Today was
cooler with temperatures generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s
across the area.

Showers and thunderstorms will exit to the east of the area late
this afternoon into the early evening hours. High pressure will
quickly build into the area through the day on Friday. This will
cause skies to quickly clear tonight from west to east and allow
winds to slowly weaken across the area. Low temperatures on
Friday morning will range from the lower 30s north and west of a
line from Vinton to Bellevue Iowa as well as in Iowa County. A
frost advisory has been issued for this area from 1 AM to 8 AM
on Friday. Think that winds will weaken enough that it will
allow temperatures to quickly drop tonight. Low temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s are expected across the remainder of
eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri.

Sunny skies are expected on Friday with high temperatures
ranging from the mid 50s along the Highway 20 corridor to the
upper 50s to the south. Expect gusty west winds to develop on
Friday especially north of Interstate 80 with some gusts up to
30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Friday night through Monday we will see dry conditions. The
main focus for this time frame will be chilly nights on Saturday,
and Sunday nights. Models suggest we will have zonal flow
aloft, along with a large area of high pressure that will settle
across the central CONUS. Confidence in frost Friday
night/Saturday morning is a bit lower, as we will be contending
with stronger winds and cloud cover in some parts of our area,
which should inhibit radiational cooling/frost development.
However, confidence is much higher for a freeze Saturday
night/Sunday morning, with more ideal radiational cooling
conditions. In fact, the NBM probabilities of low temperatures
at or below freezing Saturday night/Sunday morning are between
70 to 100 percent across northeastern Iowa. Be on the lookout
for any frost/freeze headlines issued this weekend!

A mid-level shortwave is progged to move through the area
Monday night and Tuesday. Per the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble low
tracks, an attendant surface low will translate north of our
region during that time, as it pulls some decent moisture
northward. At this time, it appears to be mainly showers with
perhaps some isolated storms with it. After the system passes
through, dry conditions are likely to prevail through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A storm system is moving eastward across the area with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances confined to
KMLI and KBRL. Otherwise expect mainly MVFR ceilings with the
showers and storms with periods of IFR possible in the
strongest showers and storms. Conditions will quickly improve
after 00 UTC with conditions becoming VFR. Gusty west winds will
develop after 12 UTC on Friday with speeds of 10 to 15 knots
and gusts up to 25 knots.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Cousins