Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 202256

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
556 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Issued at 238 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018

Southeast winds are a bit breezy, but should relax later this

Overnight, clouds will increase from west to east ahead of the
approaching 500mb trough. A substantial trough, latest trends
have it slowing its eastward advance overnight, which is typical for
these types of highly dynamic systems. This is good news for those
with early morning Saturday activities, as it brings a potential
delay to initial scattered rain showers in the morning. In
response, trended back precipitation chances after midnight,
confined west of the Kansas City Metro through 12Z (7 AM). After
sunrise, precipitation chances through most of the morning will be
for drizzle and scattered rain showers. Bufr profiles show a
delayed moistening through the low levels. Additionally, not
expecting any thunder with this activity and most rain will be off
and on for the KC metro through the morning. The best overall chance
for rain in the metro will be late morning through early afternoon.
Chances will then linger through the evening.

Temperatures will be cooler, behind the exiting 500mb trough, but
temperatures will rebound Sunday through early next week, with highs
in the mid to upper 60s by Monday and Tuesday. Some differences in
the long range, between solutions, but a general trend is for a
frontal boundary to push in from the northwest, bringing another
chance of rain Wednesday.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018

Light echoes on radar should not impact terminal sites with
consideration to the amount of dry air still present in the lower
levels. Lower cloud bases and precip chances should hold off until
sunrise Saturday. Expecting more widespread coverage to remain
just to the south of the terminal sites, though may need to
increase intensity in subsequent forecasts. A brief dry period is
expected Saturday afternoon, until a second round of precip is
possible Saturday evening.




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