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000
FXUS64 KMEG 251126
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
626 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast across the Midsouth
today, following the passage of a cold front on Wednesday.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
late this afternoon and evening, mainly to the north of Memphis.
Following today`s brief cooldown, warmer and more humid conditions
will spread into the Midsouth on Friday and persist through the
weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
eastern Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. Rain chances will
increase over all the Midsouth Sunday night and Monday, as an
upper level disturbance and Pacific cold front pass through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Overall, few changes from earlier forecasts. Active weather will
remain over the southern and central plains through Saturday, as
two upper level lows lift from the 4-corners region to the upper
Midwest. The Midsouth will remain on the far eastern extent of
thunderstorm probabilities, under the western periphery of a
semi-persistent upper level ridge over the Southeast.

The trough in the west/ridge in the east pattern will begin to
break down on Sunday, aided by progressive southern branch trough
lifting through the southern plains. Midlevel height falls and an
associated Pacific cold frontal passage will provide focus for
showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday. Elevated
CAPE during this period will likely prevail below 500 J/kg,
limiting severe storm threat. Precipitable water values around
1.75 inches will support locally heavy rainfall, but the overall
flooding threat should be limited by the progressive nature of
the upper trough.

Following a brief period of zonal flow aloft on Tuesday, an upper
ridge will amplify upstream over the plains. This is further west
than earlier depicted by the models and would expose the Midsouth
northwest flow aloft and another cold frontal passage in the
middle of next week.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A warm front will lift north across the Mid-South today, allowing
for scattered showers to develop this afternoon. Shower coverage
should begin to diminish tonight with dry conditions by sunrise
Friday. Otherwise, VFR CIGs and ENE winds will prevail.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ANS