Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 221743 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1243 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


18Z issuance...VFR conditions through 23.18z. Winds will be
mostly north at 5 to 12 kts with gusts to around 18 kts through
22.21z diminishing 4 to 6 kts through about 23.00z then light and
variable through 23.14z. Winds will then shift southeast
increasing to 6 to 8 kts through 23.18z. 32/ee


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

UPDATE...Small craft advisories have expired for the open Gulf.
Will replace headlines with small craft cautionary wording for the
remainder of the morning to give time for lingering moderate
northerly flow to diminish when surface high pressure ridge axis
moves atop the area. /10

12Z issuance...VFR conditions forecast the next 24 hrs. Light north
to northeast winds today. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Surface ridge of high
pressure moves east over the local area. Sunny skies today with
pleasant daytime highs remaining a few degrees below climatology.
Under clear skies and light to calm wind, overnight lows also to
continue below normal. /10

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...A vigorous shortwave
advances across the central Plains through Friday night, plowing
into a large upper ridge pattern over the central states in the
process. The shortwave then weakens while continuing eastward into
the east central states through Saturday night and begins to be
absorbed into an upper trof over the New England area and far
western Atlantic. A surface ridge over the southeast states
retreats into the western Atlantic and northern Gulf during the
period and promotes a light southerly surface flow over the
forecast area with mild temperatures returning to the area by
Saturday. A deep surface low associated with the shortwave system
meanwhile advances from the central Plains then weakens while
moving into the interior southeast states Saturday into Saturday
night. While dry conditions prevail through the period, the
surface low brings a cold front into the interior Gulf coast
states late in the period which supports some slight chance pops
for the northernmost portion of the area Saturday night. /29

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The large upper ridge
advances into the eastern states through Monday then shifts slowly
eastward to near the east coast through Wednesday. The surface low
will be located near eastern Tennessee early Sunday morning and
dissipates during the day as a strong surface ridge develops over
the east coast and extreme southeast states. The surface ridge
continues to strengthen through Monday and pushes a "back-door"
type of cold front through the forecast area in the process. The
surface ridge persists over the east coast and extreme southeast
states through Monday night then shifts into the northern Gulf and
Bermuda region through Wednesday. Will have mostly slight chance
pops over the interior portion of the area on Sunday then for
essentially the entire area on Monday as a series of shortwaves
move across the region. Small pops follow for the southwestern
portion of the area on Tuesday then western portion on Wednesday
where modest isentropic lift supports the potential for isolated
convection. /29

MARINE...Data collection platforms indicate that offshore flow
over the open Gulf waters remains in small craft advisory criteria
and will leave in place on the 430 AM coastal waters forecast
package. With the axis of the high moving across today, winds
decrease and seas continue to subside. A return to onshore flow is
expected beginning by Friday afternoon and continuing into the
weekend with high pressure moving off the southeast US coast. A
strengthening easterly fetch and a build in seas evolves Monday as a
strong high pressure system builds from the Appalachians into the
southeast. /10




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