Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
931 FXUS64 KBMX 062315 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 615 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025 Model consensus continues with an overall dry afternoon for Central Alabama. It is summer across the area so with the temperatures in the low to mid 90s there certainly a possible isolated shower or storm. Based on a weak surface trough to our south and the southerly flow over that trough, will increase PoPs to 20 percent for the southern half the area. Already beginning to see some cumulus develop in the west as of 11 am. Still just isolated showers and storms as currently mentioned in the forecast. By Monday the trough will be in place across central Alabama, more in line with the typical inverted trough position over the region. With this location we will see more southerly flow, thus an increase to isolated to scattered afternoon, heat of the day activity. Remember though even with the increase in rain chances, it is summer, and we will be in the hit or miss environment. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to middle 70s. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025 On Tuesday the center of the high pressure will be over the western Carolinas giving us easterly/southeasterly flow. At the same time a front will begin to approach for the northwest, but should still remain well north of the area. Any activity to our north should remain north of the area. There are some model discrepancies on the exact placement of the front and there the best lift and possible movement of any afternoon convection. It appears that the model blends are trending toward the ensemble and Euro solution with the better chances in the northwest. Based on the trends though I would suspect that the chances will decrease as Tuesday moves to within 48 hours and the short term. Same scenario on Wednesday with the best chances in the north as the front barely moves any. At this time it appears to mainly be diurnally driven activity and still generally a hit and miss coverage, just high probabilities. The better rain chances appear still to be Thursday and Friday as an upper level shortwave is forecast to move across the Southeast in an increasingly active northwest upper flow regime. A second wave is forecast for Saturday as well. 16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025 VFR conditions are in place across all terminals and will prevail through the majority of this TAF cycle. A few isolated showers are ongoing near BHM so have left VCSH in place for a couple more hours. Opted to added TEMPO groups for MVFR vis around sunrise at TCL/MGM as a few showers passed by those terminals today. There could be enough lingering low level moisture to promote patchy fog as winds become light overnight. Isolated convection is likely once again tomorrow afternoon but have left out of the TAFs at this time as confidence is low in any terminal being directly impacted. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Just a few isolated afternoon storms through Monday, but generally dry forecast is expected. Thunderstorm chances will increase through the remainder of the week. RH levels will remain well above critical thresholds, with generally light winds. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 94 70 93 / 0 20 10 50 Anniston 71 93 72 92 / 0 20 10 50 Birmingham 73 94 73 93 / 10 20 10 50 Tuscaloosa 73 94 74 93 / 10 20 10 50 Calera 72 93 73 92 / 10 20 10 50 Auburn 72 93 73 92 / 10 20 10 30 Montgomery 73 94 73 93 / 10 30 10 40 Troy 72 93 72 93 / 10 40 10 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...95/Castillo